Weather Archives | Grain Brokers Australia

Countryman 17/5/16

Posted by | GBA News, Markets, Misc, Weather | No Comments

It is great to see such a positive start to the season for most across WA with solid early rains seeing the first fully wet plant in some time. Let’s hope this continues throughout the season and those in the north can pick up some solid rains to get them up and running with the rest of the state.

Old season pricing has been unusual to say the least over recent weeks with basis remaining strong in all port zones (and strengthening in Kwinana) despite futures strengthening and our dollar weakening against most other major currencies. This is contrary to the general belief that basis will weaken when international prices rise in Aussie dollars.

With shipping slots being pushed back towards the back half of the year and many being cancelled, it is hard to see how basis can continue at these levels with such a large wheat carryout expected. Further to this, we are seeing a strong inverse between old and new crop pricing in WA despite there still being considerable carry to the forward contracts in the Chicago, Kansas, Minneapolis and even Matif wheat exchanges. This should signal alarm bells that old season local wheat prices are overvalued or new season prices are undervalued. If you are holding a large proportion of your old season wheat, this is the type of scenario you will want to avoid.

Pricing out old season crop over the short term is the simplest strategy but for more information on the above or to see how Grain Brokers can add value to your business, please don’t hesitate to call one of our team.

Weekly Report 5/2/16

Posted by | Currency, GBA News, Markets, Misc | No Comments

CORN/BARLEY

March 16 CBOT corn futures closed higher at US$3.68 per bushel up 3.0 Usc/bu for the week.

Chart 160205 WR

Brazil’s corn forecast was increased by 1Mt to 83.3Mt in January by CONAB. Exports of corn were also revised up and are expected to reach 29Mt, with high demand due to weak local currency. The lower Brazilian Real supporting local farmers to sell to the export market not the domestic end users.

Informa has raised the Argentine corn crop forecast to 26 million tonnes up 4 million tonnes from their previous estimate of 22 million tonnes.

South African grain association – Grain SA has lowered their initial estimate of corn imports from 5 million tonnes to 3.8 million tonnes.

Barley prices are also lower over the week against reflecting a lack of demand and the firmer AUD.

Chart 160205 WR1

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

The Aussie traded at the 72¢ this week for the first time since early January.

The Reserve Bank has left interest rates unchanged at their February 2016 meeting.

Chart 160205 WR2

WEATHER

BOM forecasts rainfall is more likely to be above average across much of the southern half of Australia with the strongest probabilities in the southeast over the next 3 months.

Chart WR 1601293

To read the full report click the below link.

Weekly Report 16_02_05

Weekly Report 6/11/15

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WHEAT

CBOT Dec 15 futures finished the week at 526.3USc/bu. An 11.30 USc/bu rise week on week.

Chart 151106

Chicago December wheat futures managed to close just above its’ 200day moving average, a bullish technical signal.

Once again dryness in Ukraine, Russia and the US combined with harmful harvest rain in Australia cited as reasons for futures pushing higher

The Ukraine government is suggesting up to 20% of their winter wheat crop will not survive the lack of rainfall and will need to be reseeded in the spring. According to UkrAgroConsult, a little more than 14 million acres of wheat will go into the ground in Ukraine, a similar acreage number to 2006, when just 16.5 million and 13.8 million tonnes of wheat was taken off, respectively. However, analysis think that the 2016/17

Ukrainian wheat crop could yield closer to 19 million tonnes. Only 55% of the seeded wheat crop (or about 8.7 million acres) has emerged, and only 69% of fields were in “good or satisfactory” condition.

In Russia, the Ag Ministry reported that at least 25% of their fall-seeded crops are in poor condition due to a lack of rain, and 92% of the planned acreage was in the ground at the end of October. A harsh winter would result in re-seeding in the spring with something other than wheat.

US winter wheat 88% planted, up 5% but Good to Excellent only rated 49% up 2% from last week. This time year at 59%

France’s winter wheat 78% planted.

India have planted winter crop on 8.40 million hectares so far this year- down 3.8% from a year ago due to dryness.

Local pricing has followed the offshore market with Kwinana and Geraldton at the $300 mark.

Chart 151106.2

To read the full report click the link the link below.

Weekly Report 15_11_06

Weekly Report 30/10/15

Posted by | Currency, GBA News, Markets, Misc, Weather | No Comments

WHEAT

Wheat CBOT Dec 15 futures made positive gains for the week, and finished at

515USc/bu. up 24.4USc/bu week on week.

US wheat prices traded higher this week as better than expected export sales came amid forecasts for more rain in the winter wheat areas, and as fund participants sparked a round of buying.

The USDA has lowered Australia wheat crop estimate to 24 million tons

We continue to monitor the northern hemisphere crop progress, as the market is very sensitive to any developing production concerns.

The US winter wheat is currently at 83% planted up 7% from last week. The first condition rating was also released, the good/excellent score was 47%. This is the lowest rating in 3 years and well below analysts’ expectation for 55%.

Weather 151110

The extreme weather map shows that large areas of Italy and eastern Europe experienced abundant rains. In Eastern Europe, the excessive rainfall hampered the sowing of winter crops.

In Poland, dry conditions have persisted since summer. The winter crops sown in September therefore germinated under unfavourable conditions which further worsened due to the low temperatures that occurred in October. Similar problems occurred in the Baltic countries, especially Lithuania. In Ukraine and Russia. Reports out of the Black Sea are suggesting 50% of the winter wheat is rated in poor condition. This story is unlikely to play out until the northern hemisphere spring.

The Russian wheat plantings pace is at the 5yr average, however in Ukraine continues to lag and is about 12 to 17 days behind where it should be and is at 82% complete.

Local pricing has followed the offshore market higher this week making gains of $ 6-9 across all zones. However the full extent of the gain has not been passed along, as basis continue to slide.

151110

To read the full report follow the below link.

Weekly Report 15_10_30

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