CBOT Dec 15 futures finished the week at 526.3USc/bu. An 11.30 USc/bu rise week on week.

Chart 151106






Chicago December wheat futures managed to close just above its’ 200day moving average, a bullish technical signal.

Once again dryness in Ukraine, Russia and the US combined with harmful harvest rain in Australia cited as reasons for futures pushing higher

The Ukraine government is suggesting up to 20% of their winter wheat crop will not survive the lack of rainfall and will need to be reseeded in the spring. According to UkrAgroConsult, a little more than 14 million acres of wheat will go into the ground in Ukraine, a similar acreage number to 2006, when just 16.5 million and 13.8 million tonnes of wheat was taken off, respectively. However, analysis think that the 2016/17

Ukrainian wheat crop could yield closer to 19 million tonnes. Only 55% of the seeded wheat crop (or about 8.7 million acres) has emerged, and only 69% of fields were in “good or satisfactory” condition.

In Russia, the Ag Ministry reported that at least 25% of their fall-seeded crops are in poor condition due to a lack of rain, and 92% of the planned acreage was in the ground at the end of October. A harsh winter would result in re-seeding in the spring with something other than wheat.

US winter wheat 88% planted, up 5% but Good to Excellent only rated 49% up 2% from last week. This time year at 59%

France’s winter wheat 78% planted.

India have planted winter crop on 8.40 million hectares so far this year- down 3.8% from a year ago due to dryness.

Local pricing has followed the offshore market with Kwinana and Geraldton at the $300 mark.

Chart 151106.2





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Weekly Report 15_11_06

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