The Philippines is forecast to maintain its position as one of the world’s major wheat importers in the 2025/26 marketing year (July to June), although there is expected to be a small change to the domestic demand profile due to a plateauing of stockfeed consumption against stronger milling wheat demand.
While the Philippines produces significant quantities of corn and rice, the country is entirely dependent on wheat imports to meet the nation’s human consumption and animal feed requirements, as the local climate is not conducive to its cultivation.
According to the July global supply and demand update from the United States Department of Agriculture, wheat imports in 2025/26 are expected to be 7.2 million metric tonne, making it the world’s fifth biggest international wheat buyer. This is 5.9 per cent higher than the 6.8MMT imported in 2024/25 and 4.1 per cent above the official 2023/24 figure of 6.92MMT, when the Southeast Asian archipelago took sixth and seventh places on the global trade table, respectively.
The United States is expected to remain the country’s key supplier of milling wheat, while Australia holds the gong as the nation’s primary supplier of feed wheat. Despite being a major exporter of milling wheat into many Asian destinations, the perception persists amongst Philippine millers that Australia is primarily a feed of wheat origin. Based on trade data for the ten months from July 2024 to April 2025, the United States maintained a milling wheat market share of 77 per cent, while Australia accounted for more than 99 per cent of feed wheat shipments.
In the 2024 calendar year, the Philippines was the second largest destination for US wheat exports, with shipments of 2.7MMT valued at US$735.7 million. In the same period, Australian wheat exports to the Philippines totalled 2.5MMT, 12.8 per cent of Australia’s 2024 export program and third by volume behind Indonesia and China. This was down from 2.8MMT in 2023, which was 9.6 per cent of that year’s campaign. Official Australian export data for the 11 months to the end of May 2025 has executed wheat sales to the Philippines at 2.67MMT, 14.3 per cent of the total wheat program, up from 2.32MMT in the previous corresponding period, and second to Indonesia on 3.21MMT.
The Philippines’ tropical climate is not conducive to long-term storage of wheat, which means that carry-in to each season is minimised and necessitates a hand-to-mouth bulk delivery pattern throughout the year. Many domestic storages lack the temperature and moisture control mechanisms crucial to the extended, hygienic and pest-free storage of wheat in the nation’s high-humidity environment. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service team in Manila is calling the 2025/26 carry-in just under 1MMT, which puts total supply at almost 8.2MMT against 0.8MMT and nearly 8.3MMT, respectively, a season earlier.
According to FAS, total wheat consumption in the Philippines will increase by 1.4 per cent from 7.05MMT in 2024/25 to 7.15MMT in the current marketing year as population growth, and a shift in dietary preferences toward wheat-based products drive stronger food sector demand for higher protein wheat. Consumption of milling wheat is pegged at 3.75MMT in 2025/26, 2.7 per cent higher than the 3.65MMT consumed in 2024/25, itself 4.3 per cent higher than the 3.5MMT of food sector demand in the 2023/24 season.
FAS Manila reports an increase in the demand for both high-end products, such as garlic and cheese buns, and lower-end products, such as pandesal and noodles, while there is limited growth in the demand for mid-ranged foodstuffs, such as flavoured bread. The increase in demand for high-end products has reportedly been the primary driver of price increases for flour, bread, pasta, and other cereal-based foods over the past three years.
Feed wheat utilization has remained steady at 3.4MMT over the past couple of years, and the FAS currently expects a repeat in the 2025/26 marketing year, given competitiveness against corn and strong demand from the aquaculture sector as a protein source substitute for soybean meal. Generally, feed wheat is used in animal nutrition formulations as a partial substitute for feed corn whenever there are supply gaps or when feed wheat prices encourage the substitution of feed corn in livestock rations. However, local mill operators tend to prefer corn due to its physical properties and better nutritional qualities.
The price of imported feed wheat has decreased relative to domestic corn values in the first half of 2025. This has pushed wheat inclusion rates in many animal feed formulations to the higher end of expectations, and a continuation into the current marketing year could see feed wheat demand exceed the current estimate, potentially pushing imports even higher than the USDA’s July forecast.
Production of corn is expected to increase slightly year-on-year from 8.2MMT to 8.3MMT, following the same incremental increase in 2024/25, but it remains in line with the five-year average. The growth has reportedly been driven by a less intense dry season, particularly the first quarter of 2025, and increased technical knowledge of farmers in handling fall armyworm infestations.
Corn consumption is expected to rise from 9.9MMT in 2024/25 to 10.0MMT in the current marketing year, given the sustained demand for feed corn from the poultry industry, both broiler and layers, the pet food sector, and aquaculture industries, alongside the growing food, seed, and industrial demand, especially for corn-based snacks.
Total feed and residual use of corn in the 2025/26 marketing year is pegged at 5.6MMT, compared to 5.55MMT a year earlier, with food, seed, and industrial consumption marked at 4.4MMT against 4.35MMT in 2024/25. A corn import program of 1.75MMT in the 2025/26 marketing year will be required to support current demand projections.
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Written by Peter McMeekin.
