Canadian farmers are at the pointy end of their 2025/26 grain production cycle with this year’s harvest now underway across much of the Prairies. Thunderstorms and cooler temperatures dominated the weather cycle in many regions in the second half of August, benefitting late-planted crops but delaying early harvest operations.
Analysis of the latest Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) produced using high-resolution satellite data indicates that overall plant health across the Prairie provinces at the end of July varied considerably, ranging from much lower than normal to much higher than normal, pointing to highly variable yields at harvest. However, wetter weather in August has reduced that inconsistency and significantly improved the production outlook.
The overall harvest in Saskatchewan was reported to be 12 per cent complete as of Monday last week, an advance of only three percentage points over the preceding week. Reaping operations across the province, as of August 25, continue to trail the five-year average of 25 per cent as well as the ten-year average of 21 per cent.
Around 70 per cent of winter wheat was reported to be in the bin as of August 25, while 45 per cent of peas and 35 per cent of lentils had been combined. The harvest of spring cereals is gradually increasing, with barley sitting at 17 per cent complete, and durum at about 13 per cent. The first paddocks of spring wheat, oats, and chickpeas are also starting to come off, though progress is limited, and canola was pegged at 1 per cent harvested.
Harvest progress in Manitoba remained slow in the week to August 25, with thunderstorms hampering operations in many areas. Some districts reported rainfall in excess of 100 millimetres over a two-day period, but registrations of less than 30mm were more common. With headway across both autumn and spring-seeded paddocks at just 10 per cent, Manitoba’s farmers only managed to move the harvest needle six percentage points across the week.
Harvest of winter cereals in Manitoba is almost complete, with yields generally reported in the 3.4 to 5.4 metric tonne per hectare range for winter wheat, 3.6 to 5.4MT/ha for oats, and 3.2 to 3.8MT/ha for barley. Early canola yields are reported between 2.5 and 3.4MT/ha, while field pea yields ranged widely but averaged around 4.0MT/ha.
Last week’s Alberta harvest report suggests the yield potential of the province’s winter and spring crops is improving as the campaign advances. Crop conditions across the province are currently rated 65 per cent good to excellent, compared to the five-year average of 50 per cent and the ten-year average of 54 per cent.
As of August 26, the province’s farmers had completed 11 per cent of the total task, four percentage points behind the five-year average. Harvest of autumn-seeded crops is almost complete, half of the spring-seeded pulses are off, reaping of spring-seeded cereals has begun on the earlier planted fields, and windrowing of canola paddocks has commenced.
Statistics Canada updated this season’s field crop production estimates late last week based on yield model estimates utilising satellite imagery and agroclimatic data. The nation’s farmers are projected to produce more canola, corn for grain, oats and lentils, but less spring wheat, durum wheat, soybeans and barley compared to 2024.
Wheat production is now forecast to edge 1.1 per cent lower year-on-year to 35.5 million metric tonne nationally in the 2025/26 season. This is primarily attributable to a 1.2 per cent fall in average yield to 3.34MT/ha, with the harvested area unchanged at 10.7 million hectares. However, this year’s wheat crop forecast is still 6.4 per cent and 1.9 per cent higher than the 2023 and 2022 harvests, respectively.
By category, Canada’s spring wheat output is predicted to decline by 2 per cent to 26.0MMT on the back of a 1.5 per cent decrease in the harvested area compared to 2024. The durum wheat production estimate is 4.7 per cent lower than the previous harvest at 6.1MMT, although this does follow a 43.1 per cent increase in output in 2024 compared to 2023. Conversely, the winter wheat projection is 14.3 per cent higher at 3.5MMT, with favourable autumn planting conditions leading to a 20.9 per cent jump in the harvested area.
Canadian barley production continues its recent downward trend, declining a further 1.9 per cent this year compared to last, to 8.0MMT despite an increase in the average yield from 3.4MT/ha to 3.58MT/ha. This follows decreases of 8.6 per cent and 10.8 per cent at the 2024 and 2023 harvests, respectively.
This year’s crop projection is 2.0MMT lower than the 10.0MMT reaped in 2023, with harvested area being the culprit, declining from 2.6 million hectares in 2022 to 2.2 million hectares this year. Since the 7.9MMT crop in 2017, only the drought-reduced barley harvest of 7MMT in 2021 has been smaller than the current season’s barley outlook.
Statistics Canada’s model-based production estimate pegged canola output at 19.9MMT, 3.6 per cent higher than the 2024 harvest. Yield has done all the work, improving from 2.17MT/ha to 2.3MT/ha, while the harvested area is forecast to be 2 per cent lower year-on-year at 8.7 million hectares. The crop in Saskatchewan, the biggest canola-producing province, is expected to rise by 5.9 per cent to 11.1MMT. The Alberta crop is also expected to increase by 2.8 per cent, but production in Manitoba is forecast to take a 2.2 per cent hit.
On the pulse front, dry field peas and lentils account for the vast majority of Canada’s output, with harvest projections putting production at 3.4MMT and 2.7MMT, respectively, up 13.7 per cent and 9.2 per cent compared to the 2024 campaign.
Corn is the dominant row-crop in Canada each season, with production currently forecast to increase 1.4 per cent to a record 15.6MMT compared to 2024, surpassing the previous benchmark of 15.4MMT set in 2023. Yields are projected to decrease 1.7 per cent from 10.59MT/ha to 10.41MT/ha, but a 3.1 per cent increase in the area to be harvested to 1.5 million hectares more than compensates. Conversely, the soybean harvest is expected to decrease by 7.3 per cent to 7.0MMT. This is despite a 1.3 per cent rise in the harvested area projection to 2.3 million hectares, with an 8.5 per cent decrease in yield to 3.02MT/ha doing all the damage.
Call your local Grain Brokers Australia representative on 1300 946 544 to discuss your grain marketing needs.
Written by Peter McMeekin.
