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Sorghum production forecast to be lowest in 50 years…

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What a difference a month makes. Substantial rainfall across the majority of nation’s winter and summer cropping regions over the last four weeks, on top of isolated storms in the preceding five weeks, has swung the mood across rural Australia from one of heightened pessimism to one of guarded optimism.

The vision on our television screens of flooded roads, overflowing gutters, children playing in puddles and farmers dancing in the rain have been a welcome distraction from the summer bushfires and the global coronavirus pandemic.

While there is still a long way to go, the general change to the weather pattern has growers and consumers across the country genuinely excited about crop prospects for 2020 and the possibility of a significant turnaround in domestic grain supply compared to the previous two seasons.

After such a prolonged dry spell, particularly in the eastern states, the soil moisture in many regions was at record low levels entering 2020. Replenishing those soil moisture reserves will be a long process with above-average rainfall required for a prolonged period of time.

The recent widespread falls have started the process of reducing the significant rainfall and soil moisture deficits accumulated over the last couple of years. However, despite substantial registrations in many locations, most were still below the long term average for the December to February period.

The rainfall has not been confined to the cropping regions. Drought affected pastoral districts have seen an unbelievable turnaround in pasture growth and feed availability. But most graziers were forced to substantially reduce stock numbers during the drought as the cost of maintaining livestock became prohibitive.

They are now looking to restock as quickly as possible to utilise the abundant forage. The challenge here is the rains have been so widespread that the demand for restocking quality sheep and cattle is unprecedented. It has forced the price of store stock in sale yards across the country to extraordinary levels.

Many livestock producers who have the option of planting a winter crop are looking to sow paddocks that haven’t seen a tractor for many years as the costs involved in buying stock make growing a crop a much better financial option this season.

Growers with mixed farming enterprises will almost certainly have an extra paddock or two allocated to winter crop when planting commences as their livestock numbers are well below normal levels. This means that the potential area available for winter cropping in the eastern states of Australia in 2020 will be substantially higher than in recent years. The potential for a big crop is building, but there is still a very long way to go.

Meanwhile, in Queensland and northern New South Wales, the limited area sown to sorghum this summer now has a genuine shot at achieving average yields, assuming regular rainfall continues for the balance of the growing season. It is extremely difficult to get an accurate handle on the actual area sown as the planting rains came so late. Suffice to say it was well below the total area growers intended to plant if the rains had been timelier.

At this stage, total production in Central Queensland, Southern Queensland and New South Wales are estimated to be 250,000 metric tonne, 125,000 metric tonne and 75,000 metric tonne respectively. That comes to a total of 450,000 metric tonne and would make it the smallest Australian sorghum harvest since the 1969/70 season.

One of the biggest challenges of a late sown sorghum crop in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales is the autumn/winter harvest. Getting grain moisture readings down to acceptable levels can be a challenge as the days are quite short, there is invariably a morning dew, and the daytime temperatures are much cooler. The harvest also tends to be occurring when the winter crop is being planted which strains farm resources and challenges management priorities.

In international sorghum news, the United States Department of Agriculture has revealed, via its daily reporting system, that China has purchased 110,000 metric tonne sorghum. The global trade has been waiting for news of grain sales to China as a sign that it was starting to fulfil the Phase 1 commitments it signed off on in mid-January.

Last week’s transaction is the first single sale of more than 100,000 tonne of any agricultural commodity to China since the trade deal was signed. As part of the continuous disclosure regulations in the United States, exporters must promptly report such transactions, commonly referred to as flash sales. Sales of smaller amounts only have to be reported on a weekly basis.

According to USDA export data, China has booked more than 475,000 metric tonnes of sorghum this marketing year. However, that total does not include sales of 325,000 metric tonne to ‘unknown destinations’ in the third week of February. Sales tagged accordingly are usually destined for China, and the trade is confident they were the buyer in this instance.

The USDA estimates that the US farmer planted 1.9 million hectares of sorghum last summer. This is 7 per cent lower than the previous two seasons and is well down on the peak of 6.7 million hectares back in 1986/87. Production in that year was just short of 29 million metric tonne, compared to 8.7 million metric tonne this marketing year.

China has been a traditional destination for Australian sorghum in recent years, particularly for the Baijiu market, But, one thing is certain, Australia will not be challenging the United States for bulk sorghum business into China in 2020.

USDA welcomes the New Year with very little fanfare…

Posted by | USDA WASDE Report, Weekly Commentary | No Comments

Released late last week, the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report tends to be quite significant, given that it’s usually the final numbers in terms of yields, harvested area and production for the crop year in the United States (US). 

However, the case is not closed on 2019 US production just yet as the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) acknowledged it would resurvey producers in Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin for corn production and Michigan, North Dakota and Wisconsin when it comes to soybean production.

Heading into last Friday’s release, much of the market chatter suggested that the report would be bullish, based on the expectation of lower summer crop yields. But the opposite happened with the USDA raising the national yield for both corn and soybeans.

US corn production was forecast at 347.7 million metric tonne (MMT) with an average national yield of 10.55 metric tonne per hectare (mt/ha), slightly higher than last month’s yield estimate of 10.48mt/ha.

Globally, corn production in South America was left unchanged by the USDA with Brazil and Argentina forecast to produce 101MMT and 50MMT respectively. These numbers seem to belie the dry conditions being experienced in many parts of Brazil and Argentina this summer.

The only production increase amongst the major exporters was Russia which the USDA increased by 0.5MMT to 14.5MMT. The washup of all the changes was an increase in global output by a little more than 2 MMT to 850MMT excluding China, and 1,111MMT including China.

However, the bullish part of the corn equation comes in the demand number, increased by more than 6MMT globally compared to the December report. The US accounted for just under 6MMT with a 1MMT increase in China countered by a 0.5MMT decrease in Ukraine and several other minor downward revisions.

The USDA pegged final 2019 US soybean production 90.4MMT, on an average yield of 3.19mt/ha compared to 90.2MMT and an average yield of 3.15mt/ha in the December report. This was a surprise to most analysts who expected to see the impact of the extremely challenging season continue to ripple through the country’s soybean supplies. Nonetheless, this is still 20 per cent lower than the previous season’s production of 112.5MMT.

Like corn, the South American soybean production numbers remain steady with Brazil estimated to produce 123MMT this summer and Argentina expected to harvest 53MMT. Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) released estimates last week that seem to ignore drought worries and support the USDA number. They are forecasting soybean production at 122.2MMT off 36.8 million hectares.

Eventually, soybean losses will happen if it remains dry, but most agronomists believe that the current lack of moisture only affects the first corn crop at this point in the season. The state raising the biggest concern is Rio Grande do Sul, the top summer corn producer in the country. Conab maintained its estimate for first crop corn production at 26.6MMT, down 3.8 per cent compared with 2019, based on a 1.1 per cent increase in the seeded area.

When it comes to wheat, global production for the 2019/20 marketing year was reduced by a meagre 1MMT to 764.4MMT. Half of that decrease was in Australia, where the USDA decreased production by 0.5MMT to 15.6MMT. While this is getting closer to reality, it is still at least 1MMT higher than the majority of domestic estimates.

Argentine production remained at 19MMT against the latest Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) estimate of 18.8MMT. BAGE increased their estimate by 0.3MMT last week on the back of better than expected yields in the late-harvested regions. The balance of the global production decrease was in Europe with the Russian crop decreased by 1MMT to 73.5MMT and the European Union (EU) crop increased by 0.5MT to 154MMT.

On the wheat export front, global trade for the 2019/20 marketing year was increased by 1.3MMT to 181.1MMT. The US, Argentine and Canadian numbers were all unchanged compared to the December report. The major tweaking was in Europe where the Ukrainian and EU export numbers were increased by 0.5MMT and 2MMT respectively, and the Russian forecast was decreased by 1MMT on the back of lower supplies.

The USDA adjustment to the Australian wheat export number was hardly worth the token effort with a mere 0.2MMT shaved off expectations. Like the production forecast, the figure of 8.2MMT is at least 1MMT higher than most domestic expectations, and it simply should not be possible given domestic demand and the poor harvests receivals in Western Australia and South Australia.

Looking at the US new crop, the USDA reckons their farmers have planted 12.47 million hectares of winter wheat. This compares to 12.61 million hectares last year and is the smallest winter wheat area since 1909.

On the barley side of the equation, global production was decreased by 0.7MMT to 156MMT up more than 12 per cent, or 17.4MMT compared to the 2018/19 season. Australia was down 0.2MMT to 8.2MMT, EU up 0.5MMT to 62.75MMT and several minor producers collectively down by 1MMT.

The net change to global demand was minor at 0.1MMT, but the USDA did make some quite hefty regional adjustments to arrive at total demand of almost 153MMT. The big one was a 0.9MMT decrease in Chinese demand, potentially decreasing Australian exports over the coming months.

Countering that were demand increases of 0.4MT in the European Union and 0.6MMt in Turkey. Most importantly, Saudi Arabian demand was untouched at 8.5MMT, a year-on-year increase of 20 per cent or 1.5MMT. All this leaves 2019/20 global ending stocks at just under 21MMT, down 1MMT on last season’s number.

It could be said that last week’s WASDE report was mildly bullish for wheat, barley and corn, but on the whole, it was quite underwhelming for a report that invariably has huge trade and market ramifications.

Read the full USDA report here.

Global grain markets looking for direction after benign WASDE report…

Posted by | Grain Brokers Australia News, USDA WASDE Report, Weekly Commentary | No Comments

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released their November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) to the market last Friday (Saturday morning down under) and there was nothing to get the trade, or futures markets, too excited.

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) December wheat futures closed the week at 510¼ cents per bushel (c/bu), down 2¼ c/bu on the day and down 5¾ c/bu for the week. Wheat futures have been trending downward since a 3-month high of 532¼ c/bu was set on October 18. That equates to a fall of almost AU$12 over the last three weeks.

The December corn futures contract closed last Friday’s trade at 377¼ c/bu, up 2 c/bu on the day but down 12 c/bu for the week. The soybean contract for November closed at 919½ c/bu, down 5½ c/bu on the day and down 4¾ c/bu for the week. Like wheat, both corn and soybean futures have been trending lower in recent weeks and have lost the equivalent of just under AU$12 and just over AU$11 respectively since the highs of mid-October.

The WASDE wheat production numbers were basically a juggling act, the result being a small global increase of around 0.3 million metric tonne (MMT). Australian production was decreased by 0.8MMT to 17.2MMt, similar to last year’s final number. However, this is still around 1.5MMT above many domestic trade estimates, and a further reduction is expected in the next report, due for release on December 10.

Argentine wheat production was decreased by 0.5MMT to 20MMT. Like Australia, this is around 1.5MMT above the most recent estimates emanating from the South American republic. Last season’s production was 19.5MMT. Reaping has commenced in many parts of the country, and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange called the wheat harvest 7 per cent done compared to 11 per cent at the same time last year.

The United States (US) was the other major wheat producer which saw production fall compared to last month. The USDA pegged 2019/20 production at 52.3MMT, a decrease of 1.1MMT, but still, 1MMT higher than last season.

Planting of the next US winter wheat crop is well underway with 94 per cent expected to be planted by early this week. This compares to 89 per cent last week, 85 per cent last year and 92 per cent on average. Crop ratings are expected to be unchanged week-on-week at 57 per cent good to excellent, versus 51 per cent last year.

On the positive side of the equation, Ukraine, Russia and the European Union (EU) all saw increases to their final wheat numbers for the 2019/20 season compared to the October report. Ukraine production was increased by 0.3MMT to 29MMT. This represents a significant year-on-year increase of 4MMT, or 16 per cent.

The USDA increased Russian production by 1.5MMT to 74MMT. Here again, the USDA appears to be conservative with their revised estimate as local Russian forecasts are around 1-2MMT higher. That said, it is still around 2.3MMT higher than 2018/19 production.

The most significant increase to global wheat numbers in Friday’s WASDE report came in the EU. Production was posted at 153MMT, an increase of 1MMT compared to October and an increase of 16MMT compared to last season. However, the USDA number is 3MMT lower than the most recent European Commission wheat forecast of 156MMT.

In France, the European Union’s biggest wheat producer, planting of the winter wheat crop is delayed by wet weather. The French state grains board, FranceAgrimer, estimates that 67 per cent of the soft wheat crop has been planted, up 13 per cent on the previous week, but still well behind the long term average of 82 per cent.

With global wheat demand remaining static, the washup of all of the production changes was an increase in world ending stocks to a record 288.3MMT, 142.6MMT (49 per cent) of which is held outside of China.

On the barley front, the WASDE report was slightly bullish. The USDA cut Australian production by 0.2MMT to 8.4MMT. While this may be achievable, it appears to be on the high side based on the hard finish experienced in almost all the major barley production regions of the country.

Elsewhere, Argentine production was decreased by 0.1MMT to 4.7MMT (5.1MMT last year), the EU was raised by 0.2MMT to 61.8MMT (55.9MMT last year), and Ukraine was increased by 0.3MMT to 9.5MMT (7.6MMT last year).

The USDA increased global barley demand by 0.8MMT, predominantly in Russia, Ukraine and EU and world ending stocks were decreased by 0.8MMT, mostly in Russia and Saudi Arabia. Australian barley exports were reduced by 0.2MMT to 4.3MMT, and China’s barley imports were cut by 0.2MMT to 6.3MMt (5.5MMT last year).

There were several decreases to global corn supply, but most had already been factored into trade calculations, hence the subdued futures market reaction. US production was down by 3MMT after the yield forecast was decreased to 167 bushels per acre (10.5 metric tonne per hectare). Mexican, Ukraine and EU production were cut by 2MMT, 0.5MMT and 0.2MMT respectively, and Russian was increased by 0.5MMT.

US corn demand was down by 1.2MMT, but world demand was increased by 0.8MMT compared to the last WASDE report. World ending stocks are forecast to decrease by 6.6MMT, predominantly in Brazil, China, EU and the US.

The soybean numbers were quite benign, with global production down by 2.4MMT, mainly in India and Canada, and global demand down by 2.4MMT, primarily in India, China and the United States.

The grain market needs news, and the WASDE report provided nothing that wasn’t already known and factored into global thinking. From a wheat and barley perspective, 2019/20 production is basically known, even though the USDA numbers still need a little tweaking in several key jurisdictions.

A resolution, or otherwise, to trade disputes involving China is a key driver in the near term. The big one, of course, is the US standoff, with Trump seemingly dousing the most recent positive news with his usual Twitter diplomacy.

Call your local Grain Brokers Australia representative on 1300 946 544 to discuss your grain marketing needs.

Australian winter crop teetering as it enters spring…

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The annual Pro Farmer Crop Tour was conducted across seven of the most important corn and soybean states in the US last week. The results were released after the markets closed on Friday and, as most market pundits expected, came in lower than the recent USDA production estimates.

This year’s tour had more than 125 scouts representing 12 countries and included farmers, agribusiness experts, media, government and representatives of the financial industry. The scouts sampled around 3000 individual fields along 20 pre-determined routes across Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and South Dakota.

Pro Farmer estimates the average US corn yield at 163.3 bushels per acre (bu/ac) or 10.25 metric tonne per hectare (MT/ha). This was 6.2 bu/ac (0.39 MT/ha), or 3.7 per cent lower than the most recent USDA forecast of 169.5 bu/ac (10.64 MH/ha). Total US corn production came in at 13.358 billion bushels, or 339.3 million metric tonne (MMT).
The soybean production estimate came in at 3.497 billion bushels or 95.2MMT. This was based on an average national yield of 46.1 bu/ac (2.89 MT/ha), 4.9 per cent, or 2.4 bu/ac (0.15 MT/ha) lower than the latest USDA mark of 48.5 bu/ac (3.04 MT/ha).

One key observation from the tour was the maturity of the corn crop. Many scouts put it up to three weeks behind the average for this time of the year in the regions worst affected by the delayed sowing. The eastern reaches of the corn belt were the worst affected, but the crop certainly improved in quality and maturity as the tour moved west.
The forecast for cooler weather in coming weeks will slow the maturity of the crop even more. With autumn fast approaching, the days are getting shorter, and the average daily temperatures are on the decline. This raises the concern of early frosts and the potential impact on final yields.

Here in Australia, spring is almost upon us. As the days get longer and average day temperatures increase the evapotranspiration rate of each plant rises significantly, increasing moisture demand of the maturing crop. The possibility of frost also becomes a significant production risk as the crop moves into its reproductive phase.

Rainfall last week has continued the hand-to-mouth pattern evident across most of Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia this season. The falls were generally less than 10mm with most of the more marginal cropping regions receiving less than 5mm. New South Wales didn’t fare as well with some minor falls limited to districts south of the Murrumbidgee River. Central New South Wales, northern New South Wales and all of the Queensland cropping areas received absolutely nothing.

Victoria is the pick of the states at the moment, with forecasts suggesting average to slightly above average production. All but the north-west corner has received at least 25mm of rainfall so far this month. That said, the picture is not uniform across the entire state. There are parts of the Western Districts that are too wet and conversely a significant portion of the Mallee is starting to struggle due to lack of in-crop rainfall.

In South Australia, it is also a tale of two stories. The South East, lower Mid-North, lower Yorke Peninsula and the lower Eyre Peninsula are all tracking along quite nicely, but the more northern production areas have only been catching the edge of each change and have been struggling for almost the entire season.
Primary Industries and Regions South Australia (PIRSA) released their latest crop estimates last week with the wheat crop currently estimated at 4.8MMT and barley at 2.2MMT. This would appear to be extremely optimistic based on the current state of the crop.

In Western Australia, most grain growers are in the game but, overall, the crop is running around three weeks behind average. The crop went in on time, but most of it was dry sown. The break didn’t come until late in the first week of June, so germination was delayed accordingly. Canola appears to have lost the most potential with poor germination in many paddocks and flowering running very late, especially in the Kwinana and Geraldton zones.

Southern New South Wales is starting to feel the pinch. Most of the crop south of a horizontal line through West Wyalong was planted, but rainfall registrations in most regions have been well below average through July and August. The crops in many areas are showing signs of stress and production potential is falling quickly.
Save for a few isolated areas, crop prospects in New South Wales north of that line are a disaster. Much of central and northern New South Wales have had less rainfall year-to-date than at the same time in 2018. Southern Queensland is no better. Less than 30 per cent of the crop was planted, and less than half of that still has some prospect of harvesting more than next years seed requirements, assuming adequate spring rainfall is forthcoming.

The big outlier across the entire country this year is the size of the area that will be cut for hay. In Western Australia, livestock producers have been forced to feed for a much longer period this year as the break came late and ensuing pasture growth was slow. Reserves have been depleted as a result and growers will be looking to restock.

The situation in the eastern states is far more dire. It was dry across all eastern states last year, and hay stocks were not replenished last spring. Back-to-back droughts in central and northern New South Wales and southern Queensland has sustained hay prices at extremely high levels for an unprecedented length of time.

For those doing the calculations, the high prices are certainly providing a significant incentive in many regions to minimise production risk by cutting their crops for hay rather than carrying through to harvest. This is especially the case where the crops are already under moisture stress and potential grain production is decreasing.

The entire Australian winter crop area is currently behind the eight ball in terms of year-to-date rainfall. While the drought area on the east coast is currently less than what it was last year, much lower production prospects in Western Australia and high demand for hay across the entire country means that above-average rainfall and a kind spring will be required to ensure that this season’s domestic winter crop production exceeds that of 2018/19.

Call your local Grain Brokers Australia representative on 1300 946 544 to discuss your grain marketing needs.

USDA WASDE Summary 12/12/16

Posted by | Grain Brokers Australia News, Misc, USDA WASDE Report | No Comments

The latest USDA Report for December was released on Friday, and globally the USDA Report was overwhelmingly bearish across all commodities. However, the US ending stocks of the key commodities were kept unchanged despite expectations that they might have increased, which combined with fund buying led to a jump in most futures. Globally, wheat jumped a solid 6.5 million mt of which 4.7 million mt was in Australia at 33 million mt. Corn production was up in several countries but lower than expected US stocks supported prices overnight. Beans were also up solidly on the production side but it was almost matched by a similar increase in demand.  Overall, the report was more of the same with big crops so the market will likely digest it pretty quickly.

WHEAT           BEARISH

  • World production UP 5 million mt – key changes:
    • Australia UP 7 million mt to 33 million mt.
    • China UP 85 million mt.
    • EU UP 4 million mt.
    • Brazil UP 36 million mt.
  • Consumption UP 2 million mt (mainly in Australia, Russia and China).
  • Stock levels UP 9 million mt and stocks to use ratio UP 24 points to 34.08%.

BARLEY           SLIGHTLY BEARISH

  • World production UP 7 million mt – most in Australia and Canada.
  • World demand UP 3 million mt.
  • World stocks UP 28 million mt with stocks to use ratio UP 16 points to 15.85%.

CORN              BEARISH

  • World production UP 2 million mt – with key changes:
    • China UP 55 million mt.
    • Brazil UP 3 million mt.
    • Russia UP 1 million mt.
    • Canada UP 7 million mt.
    • Indonesia UP 6 million mt.
    • EU UP42 million mt.
  • World demand UP 7 million mt – mainly in the China and Indonesia.
  • World stocks UP 4 million mt – mainly in China and Brazil.
  • World stocks-to-use ratio UP by a 30 points to 21.65%.

SOYBEANS      BEARISH

  • World production UP 9 million mt – most of it in India and Canada.
  • World demand UP 9 million mt.
  • World stocks UP by a massive 1.3 million mt (in Argentina and India).
  • World stocks-to-use ratio UP 27 points to 28.85%.

USDA Summary – October

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OCTOBER USDA WASDE REPORT SUMMARY

USDA report mainly bullish grains and bearish oilseeds. Wheat saw another month of support with less production, more consumption and less stocks, whilst the USDA lifted the Australian wheat production by 0.8 million MT from last month (we believe they are 2 million MT on the high side for AUS).  Barley continue to get tighter every month in these reports, and this month was no exception with production down, consumption up and stocks down.  Globally corn saw lower production in the US and a better Brazilian crop could not help that. Stocks of corn are down 2.6 million MT this month. Beans were the most bearish with record US yields and higher global production by 2.8 million MT. Ending stocks jumped 5.1 million MT.

WHEAT             BULLISH

  • World production DOWN 4 million mt.
  • Biggest changes
    • Australia unexpectedly UP8 million mt. This should definitely change once harvest gets going.
    • Canada UP 1 million mt.
    • EU DOWN 2 million mt.
    • US DOWN 3 million mt.
  • Consumption UP Close to 1 million MT (US consumption down close to 2 million MT)
  • Stock levels DOWN 7 million MT and stocks to use ratio down 5 point to 33.76%

BARLEY             BULLISH

  • World production DOWN close to 1 million MT (mainly in Russia and EU)
  • World demand UP close to 0.5 million MT
  • World stocks DOWN 5 million MT with stocks to use ratio down a solid 32 points to 15.61%

CORN                BULLISH

  • World production DOWN close to 1 million MT (mainly EU and US whilst Brazil actually up 1 million MT)
  • US yields now forecast at 173.4 bu/acre
  • World demand DOWN 5 million MT – mainly in the EU and “Other” countries
  • World stocks DOWN 6 million MT
  • World stocks-to-use ratio DOWN 31 points to 21.28% (and US ending stocks projected to be down as well)

SOYBEANS        BEARISH

  • World production UP 8 million MT – (US up 1.8 million MT and Brazil up 1 million MT)
  • US yields up to 51.4 bu/acre
  • World demand DOWN 5 million MT
  • World stocks UP by a massive 5.1 million MT (in Argentina, Brazil and China)
  • World stocks-to-use ratio UP 185 points to 27.06%

September USDA Summary

Posted by | Grain Brokers Australia News, Misc, USDA WASDE Report | No Comments

The USDA report was mostly bearish with a few surprises. Wheat took a good chunk out of ending stocks again by reducing EU, India and China down solidly (and Australia up).  USDA left US wheat ending stocks unchanged. Corn saw global production and ending stocks down, and in particular we saw US corn yields down from the August estimate which took a good chunk out of US production – most of it expected though so market did not react much. Beans saw the biggest surprise with US yields up well more than most traders expected – and a resulting 3.8 MMt increase in US production.

WHEAT             BULLISH – CBOT SRW DEC UP 5.80 USc/bu

  • World production for 16/17 UP 4MMt. EU (2.2MMt) & China (2MMt) both DOWN. Kazak (1.5MMt), Russia (7MMt) Aus (1MMt) India (2MMt) all UP.
  • World consumption UP 1MMt (Mostly India & Morocco.)
  • World stocks-to-use ratio DOWN again to 33.81%. (Fourth downward revision in a row).

BARLEY             BULLISH

  • World production DOWN 5MMt (Mainly EU & Russia).
  • World demand UP 13MMt.
  • World stocks DOWN25MMt.
  • World stocks-to-use ratio DOWN 19 points to 15.92%

CORN              NEUTRAL to BULLISH – CBOT Corn DEC DOWN 1.60 USc/bu.

  • World production DOWN 7MMt (Mostly China, U.S & EU)
  • World demand DOWN5MMt (Mostly U.S & EU).
  • World stocks DOWN4MMT.
  • World stocks-to-use ratio DOWN 12 points to 21.59%.

SOYBEANS        BEARISH – CBOT Soybeans NOV DOWN 16 USc/bu.

  • World production UP12MMt (Majority US which is UP 3.8MMt).
  • World demand DOWN1MMt.
  • World stocks UP9MMt.
  • Stocks-to-use ratio UP 42 points to 25.20%.

JUNE USDA WASDE REPORT SUMMARY

Posted by | Grain Brokers Australia News, Misc, USDA WASDE Report | No Comments

Not a report full of surprises on Friday night, more just in line with expectations. Wheat saw big increases in production, but nothing that we didn’t know beforehand. HRW wheat also got a boost of production. Beans and Corn ending stocks cut in the US, but as global figures were cut less than expected, no real change there.

Wheat            Neutral to Bearish – CBOT SRW JUL Down 15c

  • World production for 16/17 up nearly 4 million mt, comprising mostly of the US, EU and Russia.
  • World consumption up 3.4mmt, mainly India, the EU and the US.
  • World stocks to use ratio down slightly to 36%

Barley                        Neutral to Bearish

  • World production up 3.1 million mt, mostly EU and Ukraine
  • World demand up 2.7mmt, mostly EU, Saudi Arabia and Iran
  • World stocks up .6mmt
  • World stocks to use ratio up slightly to 16.41%

Corn               Neutral to Bearish – CBOT Corn JUL Down 3c

  • World production up 0.7 million mt – All Mexico
  • US ending stocks below traders estimates
  • World demand up 1.2mmt – mostly US
  • World stocks down 2 million mt
  • World stocks-to-use ratio down to 20.25%

Soybeans        Neutral to Bullish – CBOT Soybeans JUL Up 1c

  • World production down 0.5mmt
  • World demand up 0.6mmt
  • World stocks down 2mmt
  • Stocks to use ratio down a considerable 72 points to 23.12%

Nic Sewell

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