Mike Saunders Archives | Grain Brokers Australia

Weekly Report 26/4/16

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WHEAT

Wheat futures rallied last week, as funds extended technical short-covering and reports of firmer export demand helped futures to climb.

CBOT March 16 futures finished the week at 457 US¢/bu down 16.2 US¢/bu from the previous week.

After a period of dryness which provided support to US wheat futures, rains over the weekend and with more on the near horizon, has put pressure on prices.

The USDA released the first weekly crop progress report for 2016 – the report was bearish for wheat with 59% of US winter wheat crops were rated as in a good or excellent condition, well above last year’s 44% rating. The rating is the highest for this stage in the season since 2010, when 65% of crops were classed as being in a good/excellent condition. US spring wheat is now at 13% planted.

Early forecasts for the 2016 Russian and Ukrainian wheat crops have been released restating concerns for Black Sea production next season. However, these concerns alone do not appear to be large enough to be to have any real effect on pricing.

The Ukrainian state weather centre has reduced the crop forecast by 35% from 2015/16 at 17 million mt. This forecast is based on losing approx. 1 million ha of the winter wheat planted area due to insufficient snow cover over. UkrAgroConsult however are forecasting slightly higher production at 18.5 million mt due to favourable spring weather, this is still far below this season’s crop of 26.5 million mt

Russia has forecast their crop at 57 million mt from 62 million mt this season, a cold weather forecast is expected for April/May, and as a result some growers are expected to reduce the spring wheat area they sow.

US wheat was the cheapest in the latest Iraq tender at US$238/mt CNF (Aussie wheat offered at US$249.75/mt CNF and Canadian at higher levels still!).

To read the full report click the below link

Weekly Report 16_04_26

Weekly Report 8/4/16

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BARLEY/CORN

Unlike Wheat, Chicago May-16 corn futures closed up on the week. The increase is thought to be prices recovering from the previous week’s losses due to the USDA report release and poor US planting conditions.

Corn settled at 361.4 US¢/bu, up 10 US¢/bu for the week.

Chart160408 WR1

Argentina’s corn sowings for 2016/17 is forecast to increase to 4.2Mha in light of policy changes. The corn area is expected to have a year-on-year increase of 24%.

The change is due to farmers being more incentivised to plant corn, because of new policies and better returns. The changes in policy include the elimination of export taxes and limitations for corn and wheat. Also with better crop practices, i.e. Crop rotations after years of back to back plantings of soybeans and improved seed technology, yields are expected to be high.

Chart160408 WR2

Following on from last month’s announcement of China scrapping its 9 year corn stockpiling scheme, China’s ministry of agriculture is planning on reducing the area planted to corn by 3.3 million ha in favour of increased soybean plantings.

To read the full report click the below link.

Weekly Report 16_04_09

Weekly Report 2/4/16

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WHEAT

Wheat futures ended the month of March up, as dryness continues to build in the US southern states.

CBOT March 16 futures finished the week at 473.2US¢/bu up 10.2 US¢/bu from the previous week.Chart160402 WR1

Eyes continue to remain focused on the US weather. Parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas experienced low temperatures last week, raising concerns about potential damage to winter wheat crops. Conditions have also been drier than ideal, with incidence of drought increasing, 20% of Oklahoma was classed as experiencing some form of drought as at 29 March, up from 14% a week earlier Drier than usual conditions are also persisting in the northern spring wheat areas.

Chart160402 WR2

Last week the USDA released their prospective plantings report – This year’s total wheat area is estimated at 20.1 million ha, below the lowest trade and represents a 46 year low. The decline in the US wheat area has been driven by drops in both winter and spring wheat sowing – with spring plantings of 4.6 million ha, the lowest since 1972. The winter wheat area is expected to be 8% lower year-on-year (14.7 million ha).

French winter crops continue to be reported in good condition. Ratings as at 28 March are broadly comparable to 2015 and unchanged week-on-week for winter wheat at 92% rated good to excellent.

Russia is forecast to produce 61 million mt of wheat which would result in an export task of 23 million tonne and the Ukraine despite a rough start to their crop establishment in some regions is now forecast to produce a record 27.25 million tonne and to export a record 15.5 million tonne.

Chart160402 WR3

To read the full report click the below link.

Weekly Report 16_04_02

Weekly Report 12/3/16

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BEANS/CANOLA

Chicago May-16 soybean rallied and settled at 889.2 US¢/bu on Friday, the sharp rise owing to strong soybean oil exports.

Chart 160316 WR1

Canola followed soybean over the week with ICE Canola March 16 finishing at CA$465.3 up CA$13/t for the week.

Chart 160316 WR2

Last week’s WASDE report saw US ending stocks at 12.5 million mt a 272,000t increase, on account of lower domestic demand. However on a global scale ending stocks were reduced to 79 million mt (still a record.)

The strength of the Brazilian real, as well as strong demand for US soybeans helped to support US soybean prices last week. On Friday, the Brazilian real rose to an over six month high against the dollar, reducing the relative competitiveness of Brazilian exports. A planned trucking strike in Brazil failed to materialize into anything meaningful. There were no reports of any disruptions. Another supporting factor has been delays faced by soybean shipments in Brazil, with ship line-ups of up to 57 days reported at southern Ports.

With Brazilian harvest now at 41% complete the Brazilian government crop supply agency Conab lifted its forecast for soybean production last week to a record 101.2Mt. The latest forecast is 250Kt higher than January’s forecast, on account of gains in area planted and yields.

Chart 160316 WR3

To read the full report please click the below link.

Weekly Report 16_03_12

Weekly Report 5/3/16

Posted by | Grain Brokers Australia News, Misc, Weekly Strategy Market Update | No Comments

BEANS/CANOLA

Chicago May-16 soybean prices increased 1% and settled at 863.6 US¢/bu on Friday, as the sharp rise in Brazilian Real hurts their export prospects, and also found support on the back of weather concerns in the US.

Chart 160305 WR1

Canola took a huge knock over the week with ICE Canola March 16 finishing at CA$452.3 up CA$4.5/t for the week.

Chart 160305 WR2

Although the international markets saw increases last week, there is still growing concerns that the South American crop could limit gains in the near term.

With the Brazilian Soybean harvest gathering momentum and 54% complete. Informa has increased the Brazilian soybean crop to 101.3 million mt up 800,000t from their previous estimate.

The Argentine soybean crop has benefited from the recent rainfall and the crop is now well into their flowering period and pod fill stages. Informa lowered the Argentine production by 1 million mt to 58 million mt.

COFCO estimate Chinese soybean imports could reach 83 million mt, due to improved margins on the pig production, This estimate is above the 80.5 million mt estimated by the USDA.

Chart 160305 WR3

To read the full report click the link below.

Weekly Report 16_03_04

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