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Weekly Report 5/2/16

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March 16 CBOT corn futures closed higher at US$3.68 per bushel up 3.0 Usc/bu for the week.

Chart 160205 WR

Brazil’s corn forecast was increased by 1Mt to 83.3Mt in January by CONAB. Exports of corn were also revised up and are expected to reach 29Mt, with high demand due to weak local currency. The lower Brazilian Real supporting local farmers to sell to the export market not the domestic end users.

Informa has raised the Argentine corn crop forecast to 26 million tonnes up 4 million tonnes from their previous estimate of 22 million tonnes.

South African grain association – Grain SA has lowered their initial estimate of corn imports from 5 million tonnes to 3.8 million tonnes.

Barley prices are also lower over the week against reflecting a lack of demand and the firmer AUD.

Chart 160205 WR1


The Aussie traded at the 72¢ this week for the first time since early January.

The Reserve Bank has left interest rates unchanged at their February 2016 meeting.

Chart 160205 WR2


BOM forecasts rainfall is more likely to be above average across much of the southern half of Australia with the strongest probabilities in the southeast over the next 3 months.

Chart WR 1601293

To read the full report click the below link.

Weekly Report 16_02_05

Currency plays on the market

Posted by | Currency, GBA News, Misc | No Comments

CBOT March 16 futures finished the week at 478.60 Usc/bu. Down 8.8 USc/bu week on week.

This week the market continued to see consolidation and a bit of short covering, but with no real news wheat continued to push lower for the week. One big factor affecting the trade at the moment is the swaying in the currency market. A weaker Chinese economy and further weakness in oil and base metal pricing is lowering confidence for world economic growth. The US dollar strengthening over 2.6% over the last month which has failed to support wheat pricing.

The US winter wheat crop continues to improve and is now rated at 55% good to excellent up 2% from last week. US winter wheat is at 93% emerged vs 90% a week ago as the crop moves closer to dormancy.

Winter crops in the Western Europe are in good condition as they head into winter. The French winter wheat is currently rated 98% good to excellent vs 93% last year. French winter wheat plantings for harvest 2016 are at the highest levels in 80years according to the French Ministry. The total area of winter wheat planted in France for 2016/17 is estimated at 5.22million ha, 500,000ha up on the year before.

Ukraine has also benefited from recent milder weather, but still nearly 36% of winter crops were rated in poor condition. This is the highest percentage in recent years, last year 18% was classed as poor.

Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) cut its wheat production forecasts for 2015/16 by over 5% to 23.96 million mt down 1.3 million mt. CBH have also revised the WA grain estimate for this harvest to 12.5 million mt – down from their October estimate of 13 million mt. WA wheat production revised down 14% from the official Australian Government estimate at 7.5 million mt.

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