Canola Archives | Grain Brokers Australia

Weekly Report 9/5/16

Posted by | Grain Brokers Australia News | No Comments

BEANS/CANOLA

July-16 Chicago soybean futures made strong gains as the market was boosted by further confirmation of crop damage in Argentina. Settling at 1034.6 US¢/bu.

Chart 160509

Canola futures followed soybeans closing CA$510.5/t for the week.

Chart 160509 WR1

The fallout from flooding in Argentina continues to buoy soybean markets. Soybean prices gained following further confirmation of crop losses in Argentina and the US reported strong soybean export sales for the time of year.

An estimated 0.79Mha of Argentine soybeans have been lost due to the heavy rain in April according to the Buenos Aries Grain Exchange (BAGE). On top of earlier losses of 0.75Mha caused by previous weather issues, over 7% of the planted area has now been lost. Though BAGE maintained its output forecast at 56Mt, the latest report did not rule out further adjustments, with quality and harvest concerns affecting a further 0.7Mha.

Drier weather last week allowed the Argentine soybean harvest to progress, with 42% of the area now harvested, up from 24% a week ago. However this is still behind the 69% complete a year ago (BAGE)

Canadian canola stocks were reported last week at 7.49 million mt, down 10% year on year, reflecting a smaller crop and positive exports. Planting of the 2016 crop is ahead of average in key provinces.

Chart 160509 WR2

Australian canola production could reach 3.3Mt in 2016/17. This would be 10% higher than the 2015/16 crop.

Chart 160509 WR3

To read the full report click the below link

Weekly Report 16_05_09

Weekly Report 8/4/16

Posted by | Grain Brokers Australia News, Misc | No Comments

BARLEY/CORN

Unlike Wheat, Chicago May-16 corn futures closed up on the week. The increase is thought to be prices recovering from the previous week’s losses due to the USDA report release and poor US planting conditions.

Corn settled at 361.4 US¢/bu, up 10 US¢/bu for the week.

Chart160408 WR1

Argentina’s corn sowings for 2016/17 is forecast to increase to 4.2Mha in light of policy changes. The corn area is expected to have a year-on-year increase of 24%.

The change is due to farmers being more incentivised to plant corn, because of new policies and better returns. The changes in policy include the elimination of export taxes and limitations for corn and wheat. Also with better crop practices, i.e. Crop rotations after years of back to back plantings of soybeans and improved seed technology, yields are expected to be high.

Chart160408 WR2

Following on from last month’s announcement of China scrapping its 9 year corn stockpiling scheme, China’s ministry of agriculture is planning on reducing the area planted to corn by 3.3 million ha in favour of increased soybean plantings.

To read the full report click the below link.

Weekly Report 16_04_09

Weekly Report 12/3/16

Posted by | Grain Brokers Australia News | No Comments

BEANS/CANOLA

Chicago May-16 soybean rallied and settled at 889.2 US¢/bu on Friday, the sharp rise owing to strong soybean oil exports.

Chart 160316 WR1

Canola followed soybean over the week with ICE Canola March 16 finishing at CA$465.3 up CA$13/t for the week.

Chart 160316 WR2

Last week’s WASDE report saw US ending stocks at 12.5 million mt a 272,000t increase, on account of lower domestic demand. However on a global scale ending stocks were reduced to 79 million mt (still a record.)

The strength of the Brazilian real, as well as strong demand for US soybeans helped to support US soybean prices last week. On Friday, the Brazilian real rose to an over six month high against the dollar, reducing the relative competitiveness of Brazilian exports. A planned trucking strike in Brazil failed to materialize into anything meaningful. There were no reports of any disruptions. Another supporting factor has been delays faced by soybean shipments in Brazil, with ship line-ups of up to 57 days reported at southern Ports.

With Brazilian harvest now at 41% complete the Brazilian government crop supply agency Conab lifted its forecast for soybean production last week to a record 101.2Mt. The latest forecast is 250Kt higher than January’s forecast, on account of gains in area planted and yields.

Chart 160316 WR3

To read the full report please click the below link.

Weekly Report 16_03_12

Weekly Report 5/3/16

Posted by | Grain Brokers Australia News, Misc, Weekly Strategy Market Update | No Comments

BEANS/CANOLA

Chicago May-16 soybean prices increased 1% and settled at 863.6 US¢/bu on Friday, as the sharp rise in Brazilian Real hurts their export prospects, and also found support on the back of weather concerns in the US.

Chart 160305 WR1

Canola took a huge knock over the week with ICE Canola March 16 finishing at CA$452.3 up CA$4.5/t for the week.

Chart 160305 WR2

Although the international markets saw increases last week, there is still growing concerns that the South American crop could limit gains in the near term.

With the Brazilian Soybean harvest gathering momentum and 54% complete. Informa has increased the Brazilian soybean crop to 101.3 million mt up 800,000t from their previous estimate.

The Argentine soybean crop has benefited from the recent rainfall and the crop is now well into their flowering period and pod fill stages. Informa lowered the Argentine production by 1 million mt to 58 million mt.

COFCO estimate Chinese soybean imports could reach 83 million mt, due to improved margins on the pig production, This estimate is above the 80.5 million mt estimated by the USDA.

Chart 160305 WR3

To read the full report click the link below.

Weekly Report 16_03_04

Weekly Report 2/1/16

Posted by | Grain Brokers Australia News, Misc | No Comments

CORN/BARLEY

In a subdued finish to 2015 corn hit new contract lows of US$3.57 during the week.

March 16 CBOT corn futures closed lower at US$3.58 per bushel down 6.8 Usc/bu for the week.

To avoid national shortages and to slow down rising prices, India will import 0.5Mt of duty free corn, the country’s first overseas imports in 16 years. For the second year in a row, severe drought in India has hindered domestic output. India traditionally is a major exporter of corn to Southeast Asia. The switch in the country’s position could give more trade to other large corn exporters such as US, Brazil and Argentina.

Severe drought conditions currently persist in South Africa is raising concerns, they may have to import corn as early as May if conditions do not improve.

BEANS/CANOLA

Chicago May-16 soybean prices closed at 865.6 USc/bu, down 15Usc/bu in comparison to the previous week.

The condition of Ukraine’s winter rapeseed crop was little changed in the week ending 24 December. A marginal improvement (of 0.4% week-on-week), took the proportion of the crop rated good/satisfactory to 68.6%, down from 80.4% at the same point in time last year.

One of the watch points for oilseed markets over the last week has been the impact of improved weather in Brazil. While dryness remains widespread throughout stretches of northern and north-western Brazil, rains over the last week have helped to improve soil moisture. This has led to pressure for US soybean prices. However, additional rains are still needed to curb dryness in key growing regions.

To read the full report please click the below link.

Weekly Report 16_01_02

Weekly Report 14/11/15

Posted by | Grain Brokers Australia News, Misc, Weekly Strategy Market Update | No Comments

CORN/BARLEY

Dec 2015 CBOT corn futures fell by 12.4USc/Bu and settled at US$3.745 per bushel.

Global corn demand was forecast to decrease by 9 MMT and the negative change to the China’s demand profile by 5 MMT was a big contributor to the change. Corn demand was reduced in part due to being substituted with sorghum. The end result was a significant increase in global forecast corn carryout of more than 20MMT.

Aussie barley remains competitive into Asian homes with Western Australian FOB pricing around the US$185 level, Our barley is currently $5 – $10 over working into Saudi at replacement and while some offshore barley interest is coming to the market, no firm numbers have been shown.

BFED Chart 151114

BEANS/CANOLA

Soybean November 15 CBOT futures were unchanged for the week at 878.60USc/bu.

ICE Canola remained unchanged for the week at CA$460.6t

USDA decreased world bean stocks by 2.2 million mt, but increased US production by 2.5 million mt!!

US beans now reported 95% harvested vs. 92% last week. Brazil’s Conab raised its forecast for a the 15/16 bean crop to between 101.2 million and 102.8 million mt – up from 100.1-101.9 million estimated last month.

CAN1 Chart 151114

To read the full report please click the below link.

Weekly Report 15_11_14

Start your 30-day trial now or call us on 1300 946 544 for more information. Sign up today