The highly anticipated USDA Quarterly Stocks & Acreage Reports smashed all 3 key grains overnight with soybeans the hardest hit with a 70c drop.

  1. Quarterly Stocks Report –
    • High corn stock levels of 3.854 billion bushels (BBu) were reported as at 1st June, up 39% from this time last year, and above analysts’ expectations of 3.722 BBu.
    • Soybean & wheat stocks were both down from last year’s stock levels, 7% and 18% respectively as at the 1st June, though above analysts’ expectations.
    • Soybean stocks as at 1st June totaled 405 MBu and wheat stocks totaled 590 MBu just below analysts’ expectations of 598 MBu, and hence wheat was not sold off as heavily.

2. Acreage Report –

    • Significant increase to soybean area with estimate at a record 84.8 M acres which is up 11% from last year.
    • Corn & wheat planted acreages were both down from last year (4% and 1% respectively) with corn broadly in line with expectations, though wheat was up 700K acres.

Another USDA report overnight –  the USDA’s weekly Crop Progress Report – put the nail in the coffin for corn & beans.

Some key points were –

  • Corn’s good-to-excellent crop condition was rated at a 10 year high average of 75% versus last year’s rating of 67%.
  • Soybeans’ good-to-excellent crop condition rating came in at a similarly impressive average of 72%.
  • Winter wheat good-to-excellent crop condition rating stayed at an 18 state average of 30%.
  • Spring wheat’s good-to-excellent crop condition rating came in at an average of 70% compared with 68% this time last year.

The next major report from the USDA is the July 11th WASDE Report giving an update on the global crop supply & demand equation.

Til then, it would seem the bearish winds will continue to blow the key grains southwards.


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