El Niño remains possible in 2014

Despite some warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past month, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. However, models continue to suggest an El Niño remains possible in 2014, and hence the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker remains at WATCH status, indicating at least double the normal risk of an El Niño developing by the end of the year.

Although tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures are within neutral range, an area of the sub-surface is warmer than average. A late season El Niño remains possible if these warmer waters rise to the surface and then affect atmospheric circulation, or if another sustained westerly wind burst develops in the western Pacific.

The majority of international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate central tropical Pacific surface temperatures will remain warmer than average, and may exceed El Niño thresholds by the end of the year. These model outlooks and current observations mean the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker remains at WATCH status, indicating at least a 50% chance (double the normal likelihood) of an El Niño forming in 2014.

El Niño is often associated with below-average rainfall over large parts of southern and eastern inland areas of Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over southern Australia. Such impacts can often occur while an event is developing, as experienced in some locations over the past several months.

The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean has shown signs of weakening. Waters to the north of Australia and in the Timor Sea have cooled over the past two weeks. All climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the IOD will continue to weaken, with neutral conditions likely to return during the austral spring.

Information courtesy of the Bureau of Meteorology (Issued 9th Sept 2014).

Calculate Our Impact

Calculate Our Impact

Our clients consistently receive above average prices for their crops.

Discover how much impact we would have on your returns.

Test our grain prices
Who We Help

We provide trusted advice for the returns you deserve

Our Achievements

We aim to market your grain in the top 10% of grain prices.

Tonnes transacted nationally
Value added per tonne
Growers transacted on average

“Thanks to the excellent advice and strategic insights provided by Grain Brokers, I have been able to maximise my farmgate returns. I would highly recommend their grain marketing expertise to anyone looking to achieve similar results.”

Gordon - Kojonup, WA

Contact Us

Give us a call on our number below or send us an email with your name, contact details and enquiry.