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USDA raises global production again

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Wheat rallied last week posting solid gains from start the week. Heavy deliveries and a strong dollar pressured while technical buying helped wheat recover losses from last week. CBOT Wheat March 16 futures rallied 4% and finished the week 495.40 USc/bu. Up 16.8 USc/bu week on week.

The US winter wheat conditions have remained steady at 55% good to excellent following recent moisture events, and this should allow for the winter wheat to move into dormancy in very good shape.

The USDA Supply and Demand Estimates report released on Thursday saw minimal changes to the US wheat balance sheet. However Global wheat stocks forecasts were raised higher by 2.3 million tons. World wheat production remains at a record high and is raised 1.9 million tonnes to 734.9 million. The upward revision from the November report follows increased production estimates for Canada up 1.6 million tonnes to 27.6 million and the EU.

The USDA reports Australian wheat production will still be at 26 million tonnes, while ABARES recently reduced our production by 1.3 million to 23.96 million tonnes. ABARE also reduced their estimate of Australia’s 2015/16 wheat exports to 16.95 million tonnes from 17.53 million tonnes. (16.6 million In 2014/15).

Brazil’s wheat crop has been lowered again to 5.2 million tonnes down from the 6.2 million tonnes last month. Increasing the potential for wheat imports from the US during 2016.

India’s wheat crop plantings are raising concern with only 200,000 hectares planted vs 242,000 last year, as high temperatures delay plantings, however India still have ample stocks to cover any short/medium term requirements.

USDA Report

Posted by | Grain Brokers Australia News, Misc, USDA WASDE Report | No Comments
USDA Report

15th September 2015

WHEAT

The USDA report released on Friday 11th September (US time) had some bearish news for wheat with both global ending stocks and global wheat production up by 5 million metric tonnes (mt). Canada, Argentina and India all had decreased wheat supplies however this was not enough to counter supply increases from Europe, Russia and the Black Sea.

Global wheat consumption was the shining light, up by 1.6 million mt due in part to increased feed use from Russia, the EU and the Philippines.

BARLEY/CORN

A bullish outlook for corn unfolded on the back of a global production cut of 7 million mt and ending stocks down 5.4 million mt.

US Corn yields down by 20% compared to last year.

Chinese corn production down by 3 million mt to 229 million mt.

CANOLA/BEANS

Global bean stocks were down by around 2 million mt from last month’s report, the estimate now stands at 527 million mt.

Canadian canola producers are battling cold and wet start to their harvest, the weather interrupted start has the potential to effect production and/or quality in the area.

MONDAY 14th September;

CBOT Wheat Dec 15 – 485c/bu (+7)

CBOT Corn Dec 15 – 387c/bu (+12.8)

CBOT Beans Nov 15 – 872.4c/bu (+.2)

ICE Canola Nov 15 – $469.8 Canadian (+2.9)

Australian dollar against US Dollar- $0.7101

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