CBOT Dec 15 futures finished the week at 479.2 USc/bu. Down 11.55 USc/bu week on week.
The overall message continues to remain that there is adequate wheat stock in the world today however production prospects in India and the Ukraine need ongoing monitoring.
Precipitation for a large portion of the US winter wheat area this week, allowing the USDA to increase the good to excellent to 53% up 1% for the week followed by cooler. US winter wheat is 96% planted and 90% has emerged.
Winter crops in Western Europe are generally in good condition heading into winter, but conditions remain poor into Ukraine and Russia, but with showers forecasted over the next ten days could ease concerns that were developing due to lack of rain. French winter wheat conditions are looking even better with 98% of winter soft wheat rated good to excellent compared to 93% last year. The latest EU Commission crop report also confirmed improvements for crops in Eastern Europe after mild weather earlier in November.
The Ukrainian supply situation continues to attract traders’ attention with nearly 36% of winter crops were rated ‘poor’ condition vs 18% last year. Indications their export potential in 2015/16 could be 8.5 million tonnes well below the volume achieved last year. The USDA estimate for Ukrainian production is 24.75 MMT for 2014/15, and some analysts are calling the 2015/16 crop could be as low as 20 million tonnes.
Traditionally Turkey has been a large buyer of Russian wheat, but Russia has stated it will stop supplying Turkey following recent military developments. This could present an opportunity for EU or Ukrainian exports to Turkey. Turkey is forecast to import 3.8Mt of wheat this season (USDA).
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