CBOT Dec 15 futures finished the week at 502.4.4 Usc/bu. Down 9 USc/bu week on week.
Wheat ended the week lower to unchanged, the market has been weighing in El Nino reports, the North American harvest progression and dryness around the dry conditions in the Black Sea and the US and what it may do to next year’s crop. However, rain is forecast for the dry US winter wheat areas. Reports that Ukrainian soil moisture in the winter wheat areas now 20% below average, following a very dry August (which may negatively impact yield of the winter crops).
Egypt purchased 240,000 tons of wheat in a tender on Thursday. They bought 180,000 tons of Russian at an average price of and 60,000 tons of Romanian at an average price of almost $212 USD/t – the highest price
Egypt has paid since July. France was unable to compete in this tender again, as freight keeps French wheat just out of the mix. As of the 9th October only 3% of Egypt’s wheat purchases is Russian. Which is disappointing for them as the France’s farm ministry has just raised its estimate of soft wheat production from 40.8 million to a new record of 41 million tons, almost 10% higher than last year.
Strategie Grains have increased their estimate of the EU soft wheat crop by 2 million mt to a record 149.5 million mt.
There is some talk that Russia’s wheat export taxes might push more farmers away from planting wheat, and instead switch over to corn or barley. This would likely be a welcome scenario to the rest of the world, given the record supply of wheat available.
India are considering raising their wheat import tax from 10% to 25% in order to curb cheaper EU/Australian wheat from hitting their domestic stocks which already remain so high.
US winter wheat now 64% planted vs. 49% last week. Inform reduced US 2016 winter wheat plantings to at 39.3 million acres, down from its previous forecast of 39.7 million.
Ukraine harvest now reported to be 88% complete with 49.6 million mt of all grain harvested.
Local pricing has fallen by $4 across all ports week on week.
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