Early spring weather concerns across India’s primary wheat-growing regions and the potential negative impact on this year’s harvest appear to be coming to fruition, with trade and consumer production forecasts now sitting well below the government’s record crop forecast.
Unusually high temperatures in February exposed the wheat crop to heat stress in many regions, shortened the grain development phase, and reduced yield forecasts. Excessive rainfall and isolated hailstorms, that arrived as the harvest commenced, then exacerbated this season’s production woes, further reducing wheat output projections.
At least 80 per cent of the nation’s wheat is produced in the central state of Madhya Pradesh and northwestern states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, all of which received above-average precipitation over the peak harvest period from the beginning of March to mid-April.
Most non-government estimates for the world’s second-largest wheat producer have the crop between five and ten per cent lower than last season’s record of 117.9 million metric tonne, despite a 1.9 per cent increase in the planted area to 33.4 million hectares. That would put the 2026 harvest in the 106MMT to 112MMT range.
According to the Roller Flour Millers’ Federation of India, output is estimated at 110.7MMT, substantially lower than the agriculture ministry’s record forecast of 120.2MMT. However, it should be noted that the industry body had last year’s harvest at 109.6MMT, also well below the official production number.
The government has responded to the market speculation by releasing a statement reassuring the industry that the nation’s wheat production for the 2025-26 crop year remains “stable and resilient despite localised damage” caused by the unseasonal rainfall and hailstorms.
Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra talked down the spread between the two estimates. “While the federation has estimated wheat production of 110MMT, the figure given by the agriculture ministry prior to the rainfall is 120MMT. The reality will be somewhere between 110 and 120MMT,” he stated.
The agriculture ministry noted that while the season brought a mix of favourable and adverse factors, the crop has demonstrated strong resilience. Authorities also confirmed that no major pest attacks or disease outbreaks were reported during the growing period, ensuring that crop health remained largely intact through to harvest.
The government maintains that an increase in cultivated area, in conjunction with early sowing in many areas, improved crop management, and widespread adoption of advanced seed varieties, has collectively ensured that wheat production remains on a firm footing in 2026 compared to the previous season.
The lower-than-expected wheat output could complicate efforts to stabilise supply, although stocks are still likely to be sufficient to meet demand through India’s 2026/27 marketing year (April to March), and keep a lid on domestic prices after last season’s boost to inventories.
Wheat stocks in Indian government warehouses rose to 21.8MMT at the beginning of April, 85 per cent higher than a year earlier, the highest in five years and nearly three times its minimum target level. However, early-harvest purchases were slower than expected, prompting New Delhi to relax the quality specifications for delivery into government granaries under the minimum support price scheme.
The decision is aimed at protecting farmers from distress sales by relaxing quality norms in key producing states such as Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. The government is effectively widening the procurement net, ensuring that even weather-affected produce finds a buyer at the minimum support price. Nevertheless, the effects extend beyond farmer welfare, providing a crucial cushion for the public distribution system and price stability.
Originally targeting 30.3MMT for the current rabi marketing season, the government last week increased the wheat procurement goal to 34.5MMT. This comes amid indications that more farmers are likely to opt into the country’s minimum support price scheme, since mandi (domestic market) prices are lower, even after New Delhi removed stock-holding limits for private traders and processors. The move underscores a growing policy shift: balancing immediate farmer relief with long-term food security concerns.
While the government generally revises its targets closer to the end of the procurement period, this year the decision was taken early. Authorities also urged flour millers to purchase wheat directly from the market rather than rely on sales by the Food Corporation of India.
According to the Indian post of the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, domestic wheat consumption is expected to increase by 6.9 per cent to 115.1MMT in the 2026/27 marketing year. Wheat is the cereal staple in northwest and central India, the country’s traditional wheat-growing regions, but competes with rice in southern and eastern India. Food, seed, and industrial use is expected to increase from 101.2MMT to 107.6MMT, as the government increases domestic supply of food grade wheat to manage ballooning state owned reserves.
Spoiled wheat, considered unfit for human consumption, whether from government-held or private trade stocks, and wheat bran from the flour milling industry, is used as animal feed, mainly for dairy cattle and domestic water buffalo. A higher spoilage rate of the above-average state held wheat reserves is expected to increase the availability of feed wheat, pushing utilisation by the stockfeed sector up from 6.5MMT to 7.5MMT in 2026/27.
Meanwhile, New Delhi has reportedly approved an additional 2.5MMT of wheat for export, doubling the 2025/26 quota announced in January this year to 5.0MMT. The ministry said the increase in export quota is projected to boost market liquidity, facilitate efficient stock management, and minimise distress sales during the peak post-harvest wheat delivery period, while stabilising domestic prices and bolstering farmer income.
However, scepticism persists around the competitiveness of Indian wheat on the international market, amid elevated global supply and the approaching harvests across the major northern hemisphere exporters. Reported free-on-board offers remain well above levels recently traded in the export market, and quality concerns persist relative to competing origins. Bordering countries such as Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan will likely be the major beneficiaries.
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Written by Peter McMeekin.
