The lowest area planted to wheat across the United States since records began in 1919 was the highlight of the US Department of Agriculture’s 2026 Prospective Planting Report, released on March 31. On the whole, the report was considered neutral for corn, moderately bullish for soybeans and bullish for wheat.
The area estimates in this year’s report are based primarily on surveys sent out to almost 74,000 farming operations across the country during the first two weeks of March. However, analysts warn that planting estimates gleaned from the survey may not fully account for the impact of price increases and supply disruptions to critical farm inputs resulting from the evolving war situation in the Middle East. Additionally, the response rate of 37.6 per cent is the lowest ever for that survey, and down considerably from 44.3 per cent last year.
With the survey distribution coinciding with the outbreak of hostilities with Iran, and a notable proportion of responses received before the sharp rise in the cost of fertiliser and the global supply constraints of same, this report is highly likely to mark the high point for corn plantings in 2026.
Conversely, the soybean area is likely to benefit from the situation, although a one-for-one substitution is highly improbable. Corn and wheat generally require higher fertiliser applications, particularly nitrogen, throughout the growing season relative to soybeans, rendering them less attractive for growers to plant in the current environment.
The report pegged the all-wheat area at 17.72 million hectares, 3.4 per cent or 630,000 hectares lower than that planted last season. The expected area in the two biggest wheat-producing states, Kansas and North Dakota, is down by 4.1 per cent and 9.3 per cent, respectively, to 2.83Mha and 2.36Mha, while the projected plantings in Texas, the third-largest producing state, are forecast to rise by 3.6 per cent to 2.31Mha.
At 13.12Mha, the winter wheat classes make up 74.0 per cent of the total wheat area, down 2.2 per cent compared to last season. Around 9.35Mha is expected to be hard red winter, 2.34Mha soft red winter, and 1.43Mha white winter. While these numbers may be revised as the season evolves, they will not be directly impacted by the war, as planting occurred in the fall of last year.
The spring wheat area in 2026 is estimated at 3.81Mha, or 21.5 per cent of the total, down 5.8 per cent from the 2025 estimate, with around 3.5Mha of hard red spring. The price decline over the past twelve months is believed to be the primary reason for the significant decline, with the hard red spring expanse at its lowest level since records for the class began in the 1980’s.
The area planted to durum wheat for the 2026 harvest is forecast to be 10.8 per cent lower year-on-year, at 790,000 hectares, accounting for 4.5 per cent of the all-wheat acreage. Both the spring and later-planted durum wheat areas are likely to be adversely affected by the war if input costs remain elevated throughout the planting window.
US producers’ intent to plant 38.58Mha of corn for the 2026/27 marketing year, down 1.4Mha or 3.5 per cent from the prior season. Profarmer was out in the last week of March with a 38.85Mha peg, which followed an estimate of 39.2Mha from the Farmers Business Network.
The area is expected to be the highest in Iowa at 5.3Mha, down 3.3 per cent, followed by Illinois at 4.41Mha, 2.7 per cent lower, and Nebraska at 4.17Mha, down 4.2 per cent. The largest area decline was in South Dakota, where growers intend to plant around 220,000 fewer hectares than in 2025, a 8.0 per cent decrease. The USDA expects the corn area to be lower or unchanged in 37 of the 48 reporting states.
Unsurprisingly, the soybean area is set to climb in 2026, with the USDA’s forecast of 34.28Mha, 4.3 per cent or 1.41Mha higher than last year. The soybean plantings are expected to be highest in Illinois at 4.25Mha, followed by Iowa at 4.01Mha, and Minnesota at 2.95Mha, up 1.9 per cent, 4.8 per cent and 2.1 per cent, respectively. The seeded area forecast is higher or unchanged in 20 of the 29 reporting states.
Meanwhile, the winter wheat belt is in desperate need of a definitive soaking rainfall event after a warm, dry winter in most regions. Underlying soil moisture conditions remain critically low, while rising temperatures accelerate crop stress during a sensitive stage of plant development. The level of moisture deficit at this stage of the growth cycle raises the probability of reduced yield potential if conditions do not improve quickly. Elevated evapotranspiration rates are further compounding plant stress.
The USDA reported that 40 per cent of the Kansas wheat crop was in good or excellent condition as of March 29, down from 46 per cent a week earlier and 49 per cent twelve months ago. In Texas, the second-largest winter wheat state by planted area, just 14 per cent of the crop was afforded a good or excellent rating last week, compared to 16 per cent a week earlier and 26 per cent at the same time in 2025. Oklahoma’s winter wheat crop was rated 13 per cent good or excellent, the lowest at this time of the season since 2018. The rating is down from 14 per cent a week earlier and 33 per cent a year ago.
According to the latest US Drought Monitor, 78 per cent of Oklahoma was suffering from severe, or worse, drought conditions as of March 31, up from 62 per cent a week earlier and 45 per cent two weeks prior. Around 63 per cent of Texas fell into the severe (D2), extreme (D3) or exceptional (D4) drought categories, up from 56 per cent on March 24 and 50 per cent a week earlier. The situation in Nebraska has deteriorated from 67 per cent in the D2-D4 classification on March 17 to 86 per cent at the beginning of last week.
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Written by Peter McMeekin.
