Russian wheat exports started the 2025/26 marketing year (July to June) rather slowly on the back of low international prices and a reluctance by local growers to engage the market. However, a fall in domestic prices in the last quarter of 2025, in conjunction with a decrease in the export duty, saw margins improve, and shipping volumes bounce in November and December relative to a year earlier.
The substantial decrease in domestic acquisition costs late in 2025 shifted the financial landscape appreciably for Russian exporters, moving margins back into positive territory, according to leading Black Sea consultancy, SovEcon. As farmer sales increased, domestic prices dropped, ending a sustained period of negative export margins and boosting shipping volumes late in the year.
Farmers reportedly sold a record 19.5MMT of wheat in September and October, surpassing the 2024 total by 2.0MMT. The surge in farmer sales was primarily driven by the need to meet maturing loan obligations as well as funding expenses associated with the 2026/27 winter crop planting operations.
A slight fall in global prices also saw the export duty on wheat fall to zero for the two weeks from December 10 before closing out 2025 at 109.1 rubles per metric tonne (≈USD1.35/MT). This rate was effective through to January 11, 2026, before dropping slightly to RUB97.3/MT (≈USD1.20/MT) for two days and will then revert to zero for the week commencing January 14. The export duty on barley and corn has remained at zero since November.
Russian exporters have also faced foreign exchange price pressure over the past 12 months as the ruble strengthened against the United States dollar. The local currency started last year at RUB110.42/USD and closed out 2025 at RUB79.00/USD, an appreciation of almost 40 per cent, significantly reducing local-currency earnings even as global prices remained relatively stable.
The Black Sea nation’s total grain exports came to 30.1 million metric tonne from July 1 to November 30, 2025, a year-on-year decline of 13.3 per cent compared to the 26.1MMT shipped in the previous corresponding period. This comes despite November wheat exports hitting a record 5.1MMT, up from 4.1MMT a year earlier, and October shipments of 5.5MMT, narrowly missing the 2024 record of 5.6MMT.
The stronger export pace in the second quarter of the marketing year continued in December, with SovEcon expecting wheat exports to finish up at 4.2MMT when the customs data is released, a notable rise on the 3.4MMT shipped a year earlier but just shy of the 4.3MMT record set in 2017. SovEcon estimates cumulative wheat exports for the six months to December 31 at 26MMT, a decrease of 2.4MMT compared to the same period in 2024.
According to SovEcon, key consumers who had paused their purchasing activities in anticipation of future price reductions had now re-engaged the market. The renewed interest from major importers, such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, underscores a broader acceptance of current pricing levels and a need to secure essential wheat supplies. Turkiye has also accelerated its purchases of Russian wheat in the current marketing year, already importing 2.8MMT compared to 2.9MMT for the entire 2024/25 season.
Russia hopes to export between 53MMT and 55MMT of grain in the current marketing year, according to Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev. The country exported 53MMT last year, including 44MMT of wheat. Late last month, SovEcon boosted its 2025/26 wheat export forecast by 0.4MMT to 44.6MMT as a result of the robust pace and recovery in margins late in 2025. The analyst also raised its barley and corn export forecasts by 0.2MMT and 0.1MMT, respectively, to 3.8MMT and 2.5MMT. This puts SovEcon’s total grain export projection for 2025/26 at 52.9MMT.
On Christmas Eve, the government announced it had set this season’s grain export quota for the period from February 15 to June 30, 2026, at 20MMT. This compares to 10.6MMT over the same time frame last year, when barley and corn were excluded. The quota applies to exports of wheat, meslin, barley and corn from Russia to destinations outside the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). This decision aims to allow exporters to sell excess grain after the quota-free period (July 1 to February 15), preventing domestic market oversupply.
Meanwhile, figures released by Russia’s Federal State Statistics Service in late December put the total 2025 grain harvest at 139.4MMT, up from 125.9MMT in 2024. This included 91.4MMT of wheat, up 10.6 per cent year-on-year, 19.7MMT of barley, 18.3 per cent higher than the previous season, a 25 per cent jump in oat production to 3.8MMT and an 8.7 per cent rise in the millet crop to 3.5MMT. Pulse output surged by 50 per cent to a record 8MMT.
The reported swing to oilseed crops was also evident, with sunflower seed production increasing from 16.9MMT to 17.0MMT, the soybean crop up from 7.1MMT to 9.0MMT, and rapeseed output rising from 4.7MMT to 5.6MMT. Conversely, corn production fell from 13.9MMT to 12.7MMT; the rye harvest fell 0.2MMT to 1.0MMT; buckwheat output fell from 1.2MMT to just over 0.9MMT; while the rice crop was static at 1.2MMT.
SovEcon remains a little more conservative, although it did raise its wheat harvest forecast from 87.8MMT to 88.6MMT in mid-November. This was on the back of improved yields in Siberia, 0.4MMT higher, as well as adding 0.2MMT to the harvest total in both the Volga and Ural regions. Then in mid-December, the consultancy added another 0.2MMT to the estimate, taking it to 88.8MMT, again citing stronger-than-expected yields in Siberia.
The latest update also included an increase of 0.1MMT in barley output to 19.4MMT, due to improved yields across the Urals and Siberia. With the corn crop remaining static at 12.7MMT, the changes took SovEcon’s total grain production estimate for 2025/26 to 136.2MMT.
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Written by Peter McMeekin.
