Winter crop cereal production in Türkiye is set to rebound strongly from a drought-ravaged harvest in 2025, largely supported by favourable winter precipitation, which improved soil moisture conditions ahead of the critical spring development phase, and an increase in the planted area.
Planting of the 2026/27 winter cereals was completed in November, after drier-than-usual weather conditions had hampered planting operations across much of the country. However, abundant rainfall through December and January essentially offset early soil moisture deficits and supported plant establishment and development during the colder winter months. In higher regions, snow cover protected crops from frost damage, while spring snowmelt further replenished soil moisture reserves and stream flows.
Notwithstanding the dry autumn, average rainfall registrations across the country in the October to March period were 43 per cent above the long-term average and 180 per cent above the same period last season, establishing one of the most favourable early-spring soil moisture profiles in recent years.
According to Yasar Serpi, chairman of the Ankara-based National Grain Council, this year’s production season had been one of the most notable climatic periods for grain cultivation in the country, punctuated by a very wet April. Serpi said rainfall levels in central Türkiye, a region that accounts for around 31 per cent of the nation’s wheat output, exceeded seasonal norms in April. He added that rainfall in southeastern Türkiye, which accounts for around 20 per cent of production, had also supported grain development and improved yield expectations in the more arid regions.
The Konya weather station in central Anatolia recorded above-average rainfall in the first four months of the year, with registrations totalling 149 millimetres compared with a 10-year average of 100mm for the same period. Further west in the city of Adana, 971mm was recorded over the same period, compared to the annual average of 284mm, with crop damage a concern, particularly in low-lying areas and along flooded watercourses.
Despite the testing conditions at seeding last autumn, the prospect of higher returns relative to row crops pushed the area planted to wheat up from 7.3 million hectares in the 2024 program to 7.5 million hectares last autumn, the highest in eight years. The expansion is most pronounced in Southeast Anatolia, where many farmers have switched from planting cotton to growing wheat, supported by government incentives to plant more drought-resistant crops in water-scarce regions.
The change in the barley area was similar in magnitude, increasing from 3.5 million hectares to 3.75 million hectares year-on-year. Fears of continued drought at the time of planting motivated farmers to plant more barley. Additionally, an expectation that the Turkish Grain Board would purchase domestic barley at a favourable price, likely above prevailing market prices, also gave farmers the confidence to plant more barley.
Turkey’s Statistical Institute is forecasting total grain production in 2026/27 to come in 21.7 per cent higher than the 2025/26 harvest at 41.6 million metric tonne. The nation’s vegetable output is expected to remain broadly unchanged at 33.3MMT, while fruit production is forecast to increase by 57.8 per cent to 31.0MMT.
The Turkish National Grain Council is pegging wheat output from the 2026 harvest, which is expected to commence in July, at a record 23.0MMT, 36.9 per cent higher than the 16.8MMT reaped in 2025. This is 25.7 per cent more than the 18.3MMT average of the past 10 years and will surpass the previous record of 21.0MMT, realised in both the 2017/18 and 2023/24 seasons. The USDA posted a new crop forecast of 21.0MMT in last month’s global supply and demand update, leaving some room for upside adjustment once this year’s harvest commences.
The Grain Council’s bullish production outlook carried over to barley, with a harvest forecast of a record 8.7MMT. This represents a 70.6 per cent increase compared to last season, thanks to a jump in the projected yield from 1.46 metric tonne per hectare to 2.21MT/ha. It would also eclipse the previous record of 8.1MMT set in the 2020/21 season and dwarfs the average of 6.6MMT for the past 10 seasons. The USDA put barley output for 2026/27 at 8.3MMT in its May update.
Türkiye is among the world’s largest wheat importers each year, with much of the grain used to feed its vast flour-milling industry. A higher domestic wheat harvest is highly likely to reduce import needs in the 2026/27 season, especially as the country’s flour exporters struggle to regain lost market share in key export destinations throughout Africa and the Middle East. In the eight months to January 31, flour exports were down by more than 3.0 per cent compared to the previous corresponding period to just 2.2MMT, wheat grain equivalent.
The USDA reduced Türkiye’s 2026/27 wheat imports from 6.5MMT to 6.0MMT in its May supply and demand report, a reflection of the improved production outlook. The forecast is already much lower than the 7.5MMT projection for the current marketing year, ending June 30, a projection that is itself looking increasingly unlikely, with international purchases in the first eight months of the season totalling just 4.1MMT.
The prospect of lower import demand from Türkiye does not excite Black Sea exporters, particularly Russia, which has captured an average of 84.0 per cent of Türkiye’s purchases in recent years. In the first eight months of the current marketing year, the Russian share was 94.0 per cent. A record crop and weak export demand for its flour mean Türkiye is likely to be far more discerning with its international purchases in 2026/27 than it would normally be under tighter supply scenarios.
There is also talk of the government limiting wheat imports should production reach the lofty forecast; a potential repeat of the restrictions imposed in the 2024/25 marketing year to clear burdensome domestic inventories. There is also the prospect of an early election, which brings a propensity for Ankara to protect agricultural producers in a pre-election environment, rendering the 2026/27 wheat import picture quite opaque.
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Written by Peter McMeekin.
