Ukrainian grain exports have been severely curtailed in the first seven months of the 2025/26 marketing year, as Russia intensifies its relentless attacks on the beleaguered nation’s Black Sea ports and energy infrastructure, creating logistical challenges across the entire supply chain.
The Black Sea corridor remains the primary and most cost-effective route to international markets for the country’s agricultural produce, accounting for over 90 per cent of export movements each season. Rail transport handles around 7-8 per cent, with the remainder moving by road.
The periodic strikes have led to widespread blackouts across entire regions, unscheduled shutdowns at damaged port terminals, destruction of processing facilities, and significant energy supply disruptions to port terminals and the rail network. Loading capacity has diminished as a result, leading to extended vessel delays and rescheduling, a costly exercise for exporters.
The ensuing logistical bottlenecks have slashed monthly shipping volumes, potentially leaving Ukraine with a large stockpile of unsold grain coming into this year’s harvest. While Ukraine has managed to increase its agricultural output despite the war, the resulting surplus remains trapped due to the systematic destruction of port and logistics infrastructure. In the first six months of the 2024/25 marketing year, shipments of barley, corn, and wheat, collectively, averaged 3.6MMT per month. That fell to 2.5MMT per month in the first six months of 2025/26.
Ukraine’s total grain exports in December tumbled by 16 per cent year-on-year amid the significant disruptions to shipping operations. Wheat exports were almost 25 per cent lower, and corn shipments slumped by 13 per cent compared to the previous corresponding period.
According to data from Ukraine’s State Customs Service, grain and legume exports from Ukraine in the current marketing year to February 9 totalled 19.5MMT, which is 7.8MMT, or 28.5 per cent less than the previous season. Wheat shipments accounted for 43.6 per cent of the total, with 8.5MMT, 25.8 per cent, or 3.0MMT lower than the same period in 2024/25.
Executed barley sales to international customers amounted to 1.3MMT in the 32 weeks, 36.5 per cent, or 0.8MMT lower than 12 months earlier. The customs data put corn exports 29.4 per cent, or 3.9MMT lower at 9.4MMT. Flour exports totalled 39,500 metric tonne, which is 14 per cent less than last season’s figure, of which 38,400 metric tonne was wheat flour.
In monetary terms, the value of 2025/26 grain exports has decreased by 18 per cent compared to the same period last season. Every month that shipments decrease, hundreds of millions of dollars in foreign currency revenue disappear, money that would otherwise fund both civilian needs and critical defence capabilities.
Ukraine exported US$22.6 billion in agricultural products in 2025, roughly 56 per cent of the country’s total exports. Agriculture has become the backbone of Ukraine’s wartime economy. The National Bank of Ukraine expects a further US$1 billion decrease in export earnings in the first quarter of 2026 alone, which it says could force a costly reorientation toward a European rail-based export corridor.
According to the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC), wheat exports in the first 9 days of this month totalled just 27,000 metric tonne, a small fraction of the 700,000 metric tonne contracted for shipment in February. In January, 620,000 metric tonne of wheat was contracted for shipment, with 536,000 metric tonne executed. In December, 1.0MMT of sales were in place, and just 586,000 metric tonne left the country.
“Not everything is OK with logistics. Ports cannot operate at full capacity due to blackouts, and wheat is competing with corn, which is loaded first,” UAC said in its weekly report.
Ukraine agricultural consultancy APK-Inform reacted to the sharp decline in shipping volumes last week, slashing its 2025/26 grain export forecast by 10.4 per cent. The agency now expects grain exports to total 40.5MMT, 4.7MMT lower than its early season forecast of 45.2MMT.
The wheat export projection was revised down from 16.7MMT to 14.5MMT, the early-season corn estimate of 25.5MMT was reduced to 23.5MMT, while the barley forecast was cut from 2.5MMT to 2.0MMT. The drastically reduced export forecast means that APK-Inform’s 2025/26 ending stocks estimate has been increased from 6.8MMT to 11.5MMT. The higher carry-out projection would include 4.0MMT of wheat, 4.3MMT of corn and 2.0MMT of barley.
APK-Inform said that the changes were necessary due to “low export rates as a result of constant shelling by Russian forces of Ukraine’s port and energy infrastructure”. Harvest delays, particularly corn, unfavourable market conditions and increases in vessel insurance premiums are also reported to have contributed to the export lag.
According to Deputy Economy Minister Taras Vysotsky, the logistical challenge is further complicated by Moscow’s use of political leverage rather than fair competition in global markets. Russia affords purchasing companies and governments more favourable trade terms rather than competing on price alone, winning customers politically rather than using economic benefits, Vysotsky said.
In addition, Moscow reportedly plans to ban vessels that have previously visited Ukrainian, Romanian, or Bulgarian ports from entering Russian territorial waters to load at Black Sea terminals, codifying new restrictive criteria for shipowners and operators. Beyond port calls, the criteria for restrictions is believed to include any changes in vessel ownership, flag, or homeport within the past 10 voyages.
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Written by Peter McMeekin.
