As Central Asia’s largest grain producer and one of the world’s top ten wheat producers, Kazakhstan plays a crucial role in regional and global food security. However, weather-related delays to the spring planting program, combined with a hot and dry growing season, are expected to push wheat and barley production sharply lower in 2026/27.
This sharp drop comes on the back of two years of near-record yields and production volumes, driven by almost perfect weather conditions throughout the respective growing seasons. A return to more average yields is anticipated this season on the back of the arid climatic conditions.
Extreme temperature fluctuations caused the seasonal snow cover to melt and refreeze multiple times over the winter and early spring months. As a result, the snowmelt water seeped much deeper than usual into the soil profile, freezing the ground to a depth of 1.3 metres in some areas. With colder-than-normal temperatures and near-average precipitation in April, the subsoil remained partially frozen or was too wet for farmers to access their fields to prepare for spring planting, which normally commences in mid-May.
According to late-April data from Kazhydromet, the government’s weather forecasting agency, moisture reserves in the top one metre of soil entering winter in late 2025 were satisfactory to optimal in most grain-growing regions. It also noted that soil moisture levels in the major wheat-producing regions of Kostanay, North Kazakhstan and Akmola are currently above normal but remain lower than those observed at this time last year.
However, the balance of spring is forecast to be warmer than normal, with below-average precipitation across most regions. While the warmer weather is expected to allow for early spring planting, the risk of early-season moisture limitations remains high.
The summer months of June, July and August are forecast to see temperatures 1-2 degrees Celsius above normal across most of the country. July is predicted to be hot and dry, especially in the western and central regions, with less rainfall in the southwest and northwest. The northern provinces of Kostanay and Akmola, which are key spring wheat growing districts, may experience below-average precipitation from May onwards.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the nation’s farmers will sow 23.8 million hectares down to agricultural crops for harvest this year, up from 23.6Mha last year. The wheat area is projected to be 1.0 per cent lower at 12.1Mha, while the barley, corn and oilseed areas are expected to increase.
The United States Department of Agriculture’s Astana-based team consider the government’s estimate quite optimistic, given the global headwinds currently at play. The Foreign Agricultural Service has pegged the wheat area at 11.5Mha, unchanged from last season, but 1.0Mha lower than the 2024/25 plantings.
The FAS is calling new-crop wheat production 14.0 million metric tonne, down from a relatively conservative 2025/26 estimate of 18.0MMT. The final USDA production number for last season was 19.3MMT, while the Kazakh Ministry of Agriculture’s official output assessment was higher again at 20.3MMT.
With lower production and a decrease in imports in 2026/27, domestic consumption is projected to contract slightly from 8.7MMT to 8.5MMT. While stockfeed sector demand is forecast to remain steady at 3.5MMT, food, seed and industrial (FSI) use collectively is expected to fall from 5.2MMT to 5.0MMT. The large carryover stocks of wheat will be used to bridge the supply-demand gap, with a 1.9MMT drawdown anticipated throughout the season.
In March of this year, the Kazakh Ministry of Agriculture responded to an animal disease outbreak in Russia by temporarily banning imports of feed grains from its northern neighbour, which is traditionally the landlocked country’s largest supplier of imported wheat. Russian milling wheat was specifically exempt from the ban.
However, China’s decision to prohibit the import of Kazakh feed flour made from Russian feed wheat has dramatically slowed demand. Wheat imports during the first six months of Kazakhstan’s marketing year (September to August) ballooned to 510,000 metric tonne, nearly all of which came from Russia to make feed flour for export to China. Assuming this restriction continues, wheat imports are currently forecast to fall from 0.5MMT to 0.1MMT in 2026/27.
With the contraction in wheat supply comes a 32 per cent decrease in the export forecast from 11.0MMT in the current marketing year to 7.5MMT in 2026/27. Export volumes in the six months to the end of February were 30 per cent higher than the previous corresponding period, climbing to 7.2MMT. Central Asian nations, as well as Afghanistan and Azerbaijan, were the primary destinations.
On the barley front, FAS expects plantings to increase from 2.3Mha to 2.4Mha as growers switch out of wheat due to weaker price projections. Unlike the wheat forecast, this one is in line with government expectations. However, FAS expects the sub-optimal weather outlook to drive production down from 3.6MMT last year to 3.1MMT in 2026. The government’s official barley production figure for the 2025 harvest was significantly higher at 4.0MMT.
Barley consumption is projected to fall from 1.9MMT in the current season to 1.7MMT in 2026/27. While stockfeed sector requirements remain strong as the country continues to expand its livestock and poultry sectors, demand is still expected to fall by 200,000 metric tonne to 1.4MMT. FSI use is forecast to remain unchanged at 300,000 metric tonne next season.
Lower supply and strong domestic demand are expected to moderate the barley export task from 1.8MMT in 2025/26 to 1.5MMT next season. Exports in the nine months to the end of February were 1.1MMT, 30 per cent lower than the same period in 2024/25. Iran, China, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan were the top destinations. Competition from Russia, especially into China and Iran, is the primary reason for the significant downturn in export volumes.
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Written by Peter McMeekin.
