Wheat farmers across Egypt are busily preparing for the 2026 harvest, with forecasts of higher production a good result for a government whose ambitious plans to increase supply are supported by unprecedented financial incentives and facilitative measures designed to safeguard bread availability and bolster national food security.
Scheduled to officially commence in mid-April 2026, the harvest season starts earlier in the Upper Egypt governorates of Aswan, Luxor, and Qena due to higher seasonal temperatures, which accelerate crop ripening. Harvesting operations will continue throughout May and June, encompassing the Nile Delta and Lower Egypt governorates, while in some newly reclaimed farming areas, the harvest may extend through July and into August.
Wheat output is currently expected to reach 9.8 million metric tonne, the second largest on record, although the average yield projection of 6.53 metric tonne per hectare is down from 6.92MT/ha last year. This output marks a 6.5 per cent increase compared to the 2025/26 harvest of 9.2MMT, according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service. The growth is largely attributed to a 170,000-hectare expansion in the seeded area to 1.5 million hectares, driven by higher procurement prices that incentivised the additional plantings.
The Egyptian government continues to roll out a broad range of strategies to improve agricultural productivity, focusing on both yield enhancement and resource efficiency. Key measures include the adoption of higher-yielding wheat varieties, distribution of certified seed, and a boost to agricultural extension services.
Authorities have also expanded the use of demonstration sites to foster best-practice systems, while encouraging modern irrigation techniques such as raised-bed farming to optimise water use efficiency and improve crop yields. Additional support has also been provided through the wider availability of fertiliser and farm mechanisation services.
Beyond the farm, Egypt has invested heavily in upgrades to its grain storage infrastructure, including the construction of up-country silo and logistics facilities. These enhancements aim to reduce post-harvest losses and improve domestic supply chain efficiency.
The state-owned General Authority for Supply Commodities reportedly aims to purchase between 4.5MMT and 5.0MMT of locally cultivated wheat from farmers for the nation’s subsidised bread program in the 2026/27 marketing year (July to June). The procurement season generally commences in mid-April and runs until at least mid-July, providing farmers with enough time to deliver their harvested product to the nearest authorised collection centre.
In August last year, the government set its 2026/27 wheat procurement price at 2.25 to 2.35 Egyptian pounds (EGP) per ardeb, depending on the degree of seed purity and moisture levels. With one ardeb equal to 150 kilograms, that equates to around USD289.80-302.70 per metric tonne (AUD408.70-426.90/MT).
The latest FAS report pegs domestic wheat consumption at 20.3MMT in the 2026/27 marketing year. This figure is up from 20.0MMT in the current season due to a 300,000 metric tonne increase in food, seed and industrial demand, largely driven by population growth, and humanitarian migration. Demand from the stockfeed sector is expected to remain steady at 1MMT.
Just as the rate of inflation for baked products and cereal appeared to be under control, dropping from 21.5 per cent in January last year, to 2.8 per cent in January 2026, wheat prices in Egypt have surged to record highs as escalating fuel costs, a depreciating currency and mounting logistics complications ripple through the nation’s grain market in the wake of the latest Middle Eastern hostilities.
The domestic free-on-truck price of 12.5 per cent protein wheat has reportedly jumped from EGP12,400/MT to EGP14,300/MT since Israel and the US launched the latest offensive on February 28. This has coincided with a dramatic depreciation in the local currency against the USD since the conflict began, falling 10.3 per cent to EGP52.82/USD by March 9, its weakest level on record, before rallying over the past fortnight to EGP51.76/USD.
Egypt is one of the world’s largest wheat importers each year, relying heavily on supplies from Russia, the European Union, and Ukraine. According to the USDA’s attaché in Cairo, the nation’s import demand will decrease by 200,000 metric tonne in 2026/27 to 12.5MMT, against the USDA’s official March estimate of 13MMT.
Importers are reportedly facing additional hurdles since the outbreak of the war, with some banks in Dubai closing operations or suspending services, leading to payment processing delays. Some local millers report they cannot pay for vessels already arrived, highlighting growing logistical issues and uncertainty around domestic grain supply.
Over the past five years, Russia, the EU, and Ukraine have supplied 35.8MMT, 9.0MMT and 8.9MMT of wheat, respectively. In the current marketing year through January 31, Egypt imported 8.8 MMT, with Russia supplying 5.3MMT, Ukraine 2.2MMT, and the European Union 1.1MMT. On the cusp of harvest, the country’s wheat reserves reportedly remain stable at around 4.5MMT, sufficient to cover around three months of domestic consumption.
Although a major wheat importer, Egypt is also an important exporter of wheat flour, especially to several African and Middle Eastern countries. Exports in 2026/27 are expected to increase by 20 per cent year-on-year to 1.20MMT (wheat equivalent).
However, this is around half the level of flour exports in the 2024/25 marketing year, as competition from Türkiye increased, and cross-border trade to Sudan decreased substantially after it resumed major milling operations. The government and domestic millers are actively working to expand Egypt’s wheat flour exports to nearby countries such as Somalia, Eritrea, Yemen and Madagascar, as well as the Palestinian territories of Gaza and the West Bank.
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Written by Peter McMeekin.
