The geographic spread and ever-increasing scale of Brazil’s soybean production program each season is so vast that the conclusion of the planting program in the south of the country now coincides with the commencement of harvest activities in the northern growing regions.
The planting program kicked off in September last year, and despite a strong start, inadequate rainfall in November disrupted seeding activities in key producing states, particularly in the Central and Southern regions. This led to planting delays and replanting of fields in several of the worst-affected areas, resulting in the mid-November planting progress of just under 70 per cent being the lowest ever recorded.
More general rains eventually arrived, especially in the southern states, allowing seeding activities to regain momentum and advance significantly through late November and December, with no major interruptions to fieldwork reported. As a result, planting of the final paddocks in Rio Grande do Sul was largely completed in the first two weeks of January.
The United States Department of Agriculture pegged the harvested area at a record 49.1 million hectares in its January global production update, up from 48.8 million hectares in its December report. This is 3.6 per cent higher than the 2024/25 area of 47.4 million hectares and is 12 per cent above the five-year average.
The crop is reported to be in good to excellent condition in the key producing states of Mato Grosso, Paraná, Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul. Satellite-derived Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) analysis indicates above-average crop conditions at the peak of the growing season in these four states. According to the USDA, NDVI values at the peak of the season are a relatively accurate indicator of soybean yields, and analysis of the current crop during this critical period supports the above-average yield prognosis.
The likelihood of a return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the January to March period, from the current La Niña conditions, is likely to see beneficial rainfall in the southern states, again supporting above-average yields. La Niña generally causes dryness in Brazil’s southern states, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, which is expected to be the nation’s second-largest soybean producing state this season.
Harvest of the early-planted soybeans commenced at the beginning of January, marking the start of what is expected to be the second successive record crop. Progress remains slow at this early stage, with 4.9 per cent completed by January 22, according to AgRural, up from 2.0 per cent completed a week earlier and slightly above the 3.9 per cent progress reported a year earlier. Harvest in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest soybean producing state, is reportedly still two to three weeks away.
The soybean growing season is quite complex, with the harvest in the north stretching from early January to late April, while the southern harvest runs from late February through to May. The traditional cropped areas in the south have a completely different growing season from those in the tropical north. The northern areas of Brazil double-crop their land, with soybeans immediately followed by corn, or another summer crop. Southern areas plant their crops later and usually only double-crop after harvesting winter wheat.
With a record area and above-average yield potential being reported from the field, 2025/26 production forecasts are lofty. The USDA increased its estimate by 3 million metric tonne to 178.0MMT in this month’s global supply and demand report, up from 171.5MMT last season, 154.5MMT in 2023/24 and 162.0MMT in 2022/23.
Brazil’s Conab (Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento) went in the opposite direction in its January 15 crop monitoring report, clipping 1.0MMT off its December production forecast to currently stand at 176.1MMT. This is off a harvested area estimate of 48.7 million hectares, with the agency citing some irregular rainfall and isolated sold moisture issues as contributing factors. Conab sees the domestic crush increasing by 5.9 per cent year-on-year to 60.5MMT, resulting in a 5.9 per cent growth in soybean meal output to 46.6MMT and a 6.4 per cent rise in soybean oil production to 12.2MMT.
The state-owned company expects the country’s total grain output in 2025/26 to increase to 353.1MMT, 1.0MMT higher than the 2024/25 harvest. With the total planted area increasing by 2.1 million hectares to 83.9 million hectares, that means that soybeans will account for 58 per cent of the nation’s cropped area this season and contribute a tad under 50 per cent of total output.
Local agribusiness consultancy Safras & Mercado has not reacted to the potential issues, increasing production in last Monday’s market update from 178.8MMT to 179.3MMT. With an expected carry-in of just 4.5MMT, the agency estimates this will push the total 2025/26 season supply 5 per cent higher year-on-year to a record 183.8MMT.
Safras & Mercado expects expanded domestic crush capacity to increase the domestic soybean crush from 58.5MMT in 2024/25 to 60.0MMT in the current season. The resultant soybean meal production is forecast to increase 2 per cent to 47.4MMT, and soybean oil output is projected to grow 3 per cent to 11.7MMT.
AgRural remain the most optimistic, raising its production estimate from 180.4MMT to 181.0MMT over the weekend. “Expectations for a bumper crop remain across the country,” the consultancy said, though warning that hot and dry weather in the state of Rio Grande do Sul “needs to be monitored closely.”
On the export front, the USDA raised its forecast by 1.5MMT to 114.0MMT in its January update, up from 103.0MMT in 2024/25 and 104.2MMT a season earlier. Conab trimmed 0.2MMT off its export estimate this month, bringing it to 111.8MMT, but it is still 3.3 per cent higher than the 2024/25 campaign of 108.2MMT. Safras & Mercado have the most conservative export expectations, currently forecasting a 3 per cent fall to 105.0MMT.
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Written by Peter McMeekin.
