Brazil’s grain output in the 2025/26 marketing year is expected to set a new record, according to the latest production update from CONAB (Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento), Brazil’s National Supply Company, primarily due to a higher planted area.
Released on June 11, the ninth grain harvest survey for the season pegged total production at 358.6 million metric tonne, 1.8 per cent higher than the 352.3MMT harvested across the 2024/25 season, and 200,000 metric tonne more than the May estimate. The forecast includes corn, soybeans, sorghum, cotton, peanuts, rice, a variety of beans, sesame seed and sunflowers, plus winter-cultivated crops such as wheat, barley, oats, rye, triticale and canola. The contribution of soybeans and corn collectively is 320.7MMT, or 89.4 per cent of total grain output, up from 312.6MMT, or 88.8 per cent of the total crop last year.
The nation’s farmers are projected to have seeded 83.5 million hectares to grain crops this season, 2.2 per cent, or 1.8MMT higher than in 2024/25. Significant increases were seen in corn, soybeans and sorghum, while the wheat and oats areas dropped dramatically.
The average yield of most grains is expected to fall season-on-season, with soybeans the primary exception. Consequently, the national yield average across all grains is expected to fall by 0.3 per cent to 4.295 metric tonne per hectare, with corn, wheat and sorghum all down significantly.
The weather conditions have been ideal for soybeans across most of Brazil this season. With the harvest virtually complete, CONAB is putting output at a record 180.3. This is 5.1 per cent higher than the then-record of 171.5MMT reaped in 2025. In the 9 growing seasons since the 2017 harvest of 115MMT, Brazil’s soybean production has grown by 56.7 per cent, making it by far the world’s biggest producer and exporter each year. The United States Department of Agriculture pencilled Brazil in for 180MMT of soybeans in its June global supply and demand update.
The bigger crop is the result of both higher yields and a larger seeded area. The nation’s farmers allocated a record 48.6Mha to soybeans in 2025/26, 2.6 per cent more than the 47.3Mha planted last season, itself a record at the time. The average yield of 3.71MT/ha in 2026, another record, is up from 3.62MT/ha last year.
Bahia stands out among the states, with the highest average yield this season, a feat accomplished in five of the past ten harvests. Even in Rio Grande do Sul, which experienced several periods of water stress, productivity was higher than that achieved last year.
With increased production and the extremely strong pace of early-season shipping comes a higher export estimate. CONAB maintained its May forecast of 116.1 for the 2025/26 season, 1.1MMT more than the USDA’s June forecast, but more notably, 13.0MMT more than last season’s international sales. China will continue to be the primary destination, accounting for around 75 per cent of the total. Brazilian port data put May soybean shipments at 14.83MMT, up from 14.1MMT a year ago, with China purchasing for the bulk of the cargoes.
The domestic crush estimate for 2026 remains conditional on the implementation of the mandatory 16 per cent biodiesel blend in diesel (B16). However, in past instances of postponement or non-ratification of this percentage, lower internal demand for soybean oil tends to be offset by increased exports of the product. Amongst the uncertainty, CONAB left the crush unchanged but increased soybean oil exports at the expense of domestic use.
This season’s corn crop is expected to be slightly lower than last year, despite a 3.4 per cent increase in the total planted area. CONAB expects production of 140.5MMT, down from 141.2MMT last year, with poor yield forecasts for this season’s second corn crop the primary culprit. The total area sown to corn in 2026/26 is 22.6Mha, up 3.7 per cent or 800,000 hectares from last season, while the average yield across all three crops is expected to be 6.22MT/ha compared to 6.46MT/ha in 2024/25.
Harvest of the first corn crop had reached 87.7 per cent of the planted area by early June. It is still underway in Matopiba and is nearing completion in Minas Gerais and Goiás. The lack of precipitation through May was favourable for harvest, keeping moisture levels in the grain low. Harvested yields remain high across all states, especially in Goiás, Minas Gerais, and Paraná, with estimates pointing to record productivity in those states.
First corn crop production is expected to be 29.3MMT, up 17.7 per cent or 4.4MMT compared to the 2025 harvest. The production hike comes as a result of a 9.4 per cent increase in the planted area to 4.1Mha, and a 7.6 per cent hike in the average yield to 7.11MT/ha.
Harvest of the earliest second corn crop plantings in Mato Grosso, Pará, and Tocantins has commenced. Rainfall in May was below average, decreasing the yield potential of those crops seeded after the ideal planting window, mainly in the states of Goiás and Minas Gerais. Weather conditions have been generally favourable in other states, although there were some localised losses in Paraná due to unseasonal gales and hailstorms.
Brazil’s second corn crop is the biggest of the three, with CONAB estimating production at 107.9MMT, 4.7 per cent lower than the record of 113.2MMT produced in 2024/25. The planted area is 2.0 per cent higher at 17.8Mha, but the average yield of 6.1MT/ha is down 6.6 per cent year-on-year.
Planting of the third corn crop is completed or nearing completion in most regions. This year’s harvest is expected to be 3.3MMT, up from 3.0MMT in 2025, on the back of increases in both the planted area and yield of 6.7 per cent and 2.0 per cent, respectively.
Domestic consumption of corn is forecast at 94.9MMT, 4.6 per cent more than the previous year. This growth is mainly attributed to the increased use of corn in ethanol production, which is gaining increasing relevance in the renewable energy sector.
CONAB’s corn export projection for 2025/26 is 46.5MMT, driven by ample domestic supply and buoyant international demand. The forecast is up from 41.6MMT last season but is well down on the record of 54.6MMT set in 2022/23. The CONAB estimate is significantly higher than the USDA’s current export forecast of 43MMT.
Call your local Grain Brokers Australia representative on 1300 946 544 to discuss your grain marketing needs.
Written by Peter McMeekin.
