Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat harvest has smashed the nation’s previous production record, with the country’s two leading grain exchanges raising their output forecasts multiple times over the past couple of months as the crop overcame some late-spring weather challenges and yields continued to exceed pre-harvest forecasts.
The Rosario Grain Exchange was the first to fully recognise the magnitude of this season’s wheat crop potential, raising its production estimate to a record 27.7 million metric tonne on December 11, 3.2MMT higher than its early November forecast of 24.5MMT. This is 37.8 per cent more than the previous year’s harvest of 20.1MMT, and 20.4 per cent higher than the 2021/22 harvest record of 23MMT.
The harvested area of 7.17 million hectares surpasses the Rosario Grain Exchange’s previous record of 7.1 million hectares and is up from 6.9 million hectares in 2024/25. The average yield forecast of 4.1 metric tonne per hectare is 35 per cent higher than the 3.04MT/ha average achieved a year earlier.
Such a harvest outcome was improbable after the drought conditions that affected much of last season’s summer crop development. Although there were good autumn rains, and soil moisture reserves had begun to build in the months leading up to planting, the exchange started the campaign with a projected wheat crop of 20.0MMT. However, as the harvest progressed, recorded yields became evident in many regions after an almost ideal growing season.
“It should be noted that this has been a year where rainfall was not a limiting factor in expressing the wheat crop’s potential, with unprecedented rainfall in July and especially in August, and excellent grain-filling conditions across much of the Pampas region. This cycle is also characterised by the sector’s investment in technology, particularly in seed, disease control, fertilisation, and the necessary topdressings to address the severe nutrient leaching problems caused by rainfall,” the Rosario Grain Exchange reported.
On December 30, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its output forecast to a record 27.8MMT, up from 27.1MMT a week earlier and 25.5MMT at the beginning of the month. This is almost 25 per cent higher than the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange’s previous production benchmark of 22.4MMT set in the 2021/22 season, and nearly 50 per cent higher than its 2024/25 harvest of 18.6MMT.
At 6.7 million hectares, the Buenos Aires bourse is using a slightly lower harvested area than its Rosario-based counterpart, as it did last year, when it called the area 6.3 million hectares. That puts the final yield forecast from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange at 4.15MT/ha, more than 36 per cent higher than the 3.04MT/ha average last season. However, the average yield harvest-to-date stood at 4.32MT/ha in last week’s crop update from the exchange, suggesting a further hike in the production forecast is possible as the winter crop fieldwork winds down.
According to the BAGE, this season’s harvest progressed 8.1 percentage points in the week to December 30, leaving just 7.2 per cent of the 2025/26 campaign to be completed. If the favourable conditions persist, the harvest should be wrapped up by the middle of this month.
The magnitude of the wheat harvest has triggered a rush to move grain into export positions. The sheer volume is putting immense pressure on logistics, with farmers eager to clear farm-stored stocks to make space for the later-harvested grain. As a result, truck deliveries to the river shipping hub in Rosario surged to an all-time high of almost 2.0MMT in November. That is roughly twice the volume typically seen in recent years, highlighting just how intense the grain flow has been this harvest.
With Argentina’s wheat production and exports at 24MMT and 14.5MMT, respectively, upward revisions to both are expected when the United States Department of Agriculture releases the January edition of its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates on January 10. The hot early-season export pace could also see the nation’s 2021/22 export record of 16MMT seriously challenged, especially if it remains competitive in the first quarter of 2026.
Unsurprisingly, the record yields have resulted in an unusually low average protein content, raising concerns around the availability of 11.5 per cent protein milling wheat for both the domestic and export markets. There are reports of protein levels in the 8-9 per cent range in parts of the Cordoba province, the nation’s third-biggest producing province behind Buenos Aires and Santa Fe.
The export flood of low-protein wheat from Argentina is likely to further dampen the price of feed wheat in international markets, a bonus for consumers of that grade, while the lack of milling wheat with protein of 11.5 per cent and higher from South America’s biggest wheat exporter is already reported to be boosting sales of those grades from other global suppliers.
Historically, the biggest buyer of Argentinian wheat, Brazil has reportedly already purchased from non-traditional exporters due to the dearth of quality milling wheat from Argentina this season. The country’s millers reportedly bought at least two cargoes from Russia totalling 60,000 metric tonne for shipment last month.
Conversely, the cheap feed wheat has attracted Chinese interest, with a reported purchase of 65,000 metric tonne last month marking Argentina’s first commercial bulk wheat shipment to the key Asian consumer since the 1990s. China granted import authorisation for Argentinian wheat in January 2024.
The wheat shipment comes as Argentina’s government moves to lower export taxes on agricultural products, a policy shift that could reinforce the country’s ability to compete into markets such as China. The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, announced a new round of reductions in export duties in December, calling it another step toward easing the tax burden on the agricultural sector.
Under the changes, the export tax rates will be reduced as follows: soybeans from 26 to 24 per cent; soybean byproducts from 24.5 to 22.5 per cent; wheat and barley from 9.5 to 7.5 per cent; corn and sorghum from 9.5 to 8.5 per cent; and sunflower from 5.5 to 4.5 per cent. According to Caputo, the cuts aim to improve the competitiveness of the nation’s agribusiness, which accounts for around 60 per cent of Argentina’s export income.
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Written by Peter McMeekin.
