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Weekly Report 6/11/15

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WHEAT

CBOT Dec 15 futures finished the week at 526.3USc/bu. An 11.30 USc/bu rise week on week.

Chart 151106

Chicago December wheat futures managed to close just above its’ 200day moving average, a bullish technical signal.

Once again dryness in Ukraine, Russia and the US combined with harmful harvest rain in Australia cited as reasons for futures pushing higher

The Ukraine government is suggesting up to 20% of their winter wheat crop will not survive the lack of rainfall and will need to be reseeded in the spring. According to UkrAgroConsult, a little more than 14 million acres of wheat will go into the ground in Ukraine, a similar acreage number to 2006, when just 16.5 million and 13.8 million tonnes of wheat was taken off, respectively. However, analysis think that the 2016/17

Ukrainian wheat crop could yield closer to 19 million tonnes. Only 55% of the seeded wheat crop (or about 8.7 million acres) has emerged, and only 69% of fields were in “good or satisfactory” condition.

In Russia, the Ag Ministry reported that at least 25% of their fall-seeded crops are in poor condition due to a lack of rain, and 92% of the planned acreage was in the ground at the end of October. A harsh winter would result in re-seeding in the spring with something other than wheat.

US winter wheat 88% planted, up 5% but Good to Excellent only rated 49% up 2% from last week. This time year at 59%

France’s winter wheat 78% planted.

India have planted winter crop on 8.40 million hectares so far this year- down 3.8% from a year ago due to dryness.

Local pricing has followed the offshore market with Kwinana and Geraldton at the $300 mark.

Chart 151106.2

To read the full report click the link the link below.

Weekly Report 15_11_06

Weekly Report 30/10/15

Posted by | Grain Brokers Australia News | No Comments

WHEAT

Wheat CBOT Dec 15 futures made positive gains for the week, and finished at

515USc/bu. up 24.4USc/bu week on week.

US wheat prices traded higher this week as better than expected export sales came amid forecasts for more rain in the winter wheat areas, and as fund participants sparked a round of buying.

The USDA has lowered Australia wheat crop estimate to 24 million tons

We continue to monitor the northern hemisphere crop progress, as the market is very sensitive to any developing production concerns.

The US winter wheat is currently at 83% planted up 7% from last week. The first condition rating was also released, the good/excellent score was 47%. This is the lowest rating in 3 years and well below analysts’ expectation for 55%.

Weather 151110

The extreme weather map shows that large areas of Italy and eastern Europe experienced abundant rains. In Eastern Europe, the excessive rainfall hampered the sowing of winter crops.

In Poland, dry conditions have persisted since summer. The winter crops sown in September therefore germinated under unfavourable conditions which further worsened due to the low temperatures that occurred in October. Similar problems occurred in the Baltic countries, especially Lithuania. In Ukraine and Russia. Reports out of the Black Sea are suggesting 50% of the winter wheat is rated in poor condition. This story is unlikely to play out until the northern hemisphere spring.

The Russian wheat plantings pace is at the 5yr average, however in Ukraine continues to lag and is about 12 to 17 days behind where it should be and is at 82% complete.

Local pricing has followed the offshore market higher this week making gains of $ 6-9 across all zones. However the full extent of the gain has not been passed along, as basis continue to slide.

To read the full report follow the below link.

Weekly Report 15_10_30

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