National rainfall outlook for June to August (issued 28th May)
- A drier than normal winter is more likely for the southern mainland of Australia and parts of the tropical north.
- A wetter than normal winter is more likely for eastern Tasmania
- Climate influences include a warming tropical Pacific, and an easing of the warm eastern Indian Ocean
- Outlook accuracy is moderate to high over the northeast half of Australia, southern and central WA, and western Tasmania, with low accuracy elsewhere.
The chances of receiving above median rainfall for winter are less than 40% over parts of southern WA, most of SA, southern Queensland, NSW and northern Victoria (see map above), with chances falling below 30% over southeast SA, and southern NSW. In other words, this means the chances of below average rainfall is greater than 60% in these areas.
For every ten winter outlooks with similar odds to these, about three or four of them would result in above-average rainfall over these areas, while about six or seven would be below average.
Conversely, the chance of exceeding the median rainfall is greater than 60% over eastern Tasmania.
Over the rest of the country, there is no significant shift in the odds towards either a wetter or drier than normal season.
Weekly rainfall map
(Courtesy of the Bureau of Meteorology)