Drier than normal winter likely for southern mainland Australia (BoM) | Grain Brokers Australia

National rainfall outlook for June to August (issued 28th May)

Summary

  • A drier than normal winter is more likely for the southern mainland of Australia and parts of the tropical north.
  • A wetter than normal winter is more likely for eastern Tasmania
  • Climate influences include a warming tropical Pacific, and an easing of the warm eastern Indian Ocean
  • Outlook accuracy is moderate to high over the northeast half of Australia, southern and central WA, and western Tasmania, with low accuracy elsewhere.

Probability of exceeding median rainfall - click on the map for a larger version

Details
The chances of receiving above median rainfall for winter are less than 40% over parts of southern WA, most of SA, southern Queensland, NSW and northern Victoria (see map above), with chances falling below 30% over southeast SA, and southern NSW.  In other words, this means the chances of below average rainfall is greater than 60% in these areas.

For every ten winter outlooks with similar odds to these, about three or four of them would result in above-average rainfall over these areas, while about six or seven would be below average.

Conversely, the chance of exceeding the median rainfall is greater than 60% over eastern Tasmania.

Over the rest of the country, there is no significant shift in the odds towards either a wetter or drier than normal season.

Weekly rainfall map

Rainfall totals map for the 7 days ending 9 am Tuesday 10 June 2014 - click on the map for a larger version with place names - state maps for Victoria and Tasmania are derived from higher resolution analyses and may show more detail than is present on the national map

(Courtesy of the Bureau of Meteorology)

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